South I

This constituency is atypical in the sense that it is the only one without geographical continuity. It is made up of the city of Saida, detached from the Zahrani region, and the district of Jezzine, and has five seats (it is the smallest constituency in the country): two Sunni, two Maronite and one Greek Catholic.

The absence of a Shiite seat in this constituency should not be deceiving regarding the influence that the Amal-Hezbollah tandem has there. Not only does the Shiite electorate — which is a minority, but decisive at the same time — play the role of a referee, but the parliamentary bloc of Speaker Nabih Berri claims a Maronite seat in Jezzine, that of MP Ibrahim Azar. In 2018, the latter had wrested this seat in a battle between Amal and the FPM, and it is clear that the Hezbollah electorate had decided the duel in favor of the former. This year, an agreement is in the making to maintain the same result in Jezzine; i.e., two seats for the FPM and one for Berri’s bloc.

In Saida, the battle is open. Two basic facts impose themselves: first, the withdrawal of the Future Movement, implying a demobilization, unless there is a resurgence, and the end of the alliance between the outgoing MP Osama Saad and the duo of Hezbollah and Amal. Since the Oct. 17, 2019 uprising, Saad has distanced himself from the March 8 bloc, moving inexorably closer to the opposition movement.