Bekaa III

The Baalbeck-Hermel constituency, with 10 seats (six Shiite, two Sunni, one Maronite, one Greek Catholic) is an undisputed Hezbollah stronghold. However, Hezbollah, along with its allies, won "only" eight of the ten seats in the 2018 elections, due to the voting system, allowing one of the Sunni seats to go to the Future Movement and the Maronite seat to the Lebanese Forces. On the other hand, it easily retained all six Shiite seats, and won one Sunni seat and the Greek Catholic seat.

This year, there should be no major upheaval in the region, as Hassan Nasrallah's party seems far from losing its dominant position. The question that arises is whether, deprived of Sunni support, the outgoing LF MP Antoine Habchi will be able to keep his seat. Given the more than respectable score he achieved individually in 2018 (nearly 15,000 votes out of a threshold of 18,700), the task is far from being impossible. The second issue lies in the probable entry of the FPM in this region, an agreement having apparently been reached with Hezbollah on the Greek Catholic seat, currently held by Albert Mansour, who is close to pro-Syrian circles, to be attributed to Bassil’s party. It would in fact be a give and take between the FPM and Hezbollah, as the latter would take the Shiite seat of Jbeil in return.