North I

A real reservoir of Sunni votes, this constituency, which corresponds with the Akkar district, is one of the main strongholds of Hariri’s Future Movement. In 2018, despite a new voting system that is clearly unfavorable to it, the blue party and its allies managed to keep five seats (three Sunni, one Maronite and one Greek Orthodox), including one for the Lebanese Forces, out of seven in total. In contrast, the list led by Bassil's FPM won only two seats (one Greek Orthodox and one Alawite).

A radical change could, however, occur in 2022 if the Sunni electorate is massively demobilized due to the boycott of the election by Hariri. Moreover, in this constituency, where the large Christian minority leans more towards the FPM, the LF could lose its only seat unless it has significant Sunni support.

Added to this is the fact that Akkar is a region where the influence of neighboring Syria remains a factor to be taken into account.

Finally, despite a very small Shiite population, Hezbollah has been setting up an active electoral clientelism machine for several months in this peripheral region, which remains very poor and marginalized.