North III

This is the constituency of all Christian battles. It is here, in this set of four districts (Batroun, Koura, Bsharri, Zgharta) with 10 seats (seven Maronites and three Greek Orthodox) that the two main Christian political leaders, Samir Geagea and Gebran Bassil, have to fight their most important battle, potentially foreshadowing the presidential elections.

It is true that the head of the Lebanese Forces is not himself a candidate for Parliament, while the head of the FMP is in Batroun. But Samir Geagea is at home in this region, as is a third important Maronite leader, Sleiman Frangieh, also a presidential candidate. The latter won three out of 10 seats in 2018, as did Bassil and Geagea. The 10th seat went to the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, an ally at the time of Frangieh. This year, the Aounist bloc must fight to keep two of its seats, having lost along the way the third, with Michel Moawad having withdrawn from their bloc to run as an independent. This will not be an easy task. The three main contenders must take into account a fourth list of weight, formed by Moawad, the Kataeb and Majd Harb, son of the former longtime parliamentarian Boutros Harb.

Finally, a fifth list, called Chamalouna, has recently emerged, bringing together opposition groups. Its results will need to be closely followed in a constituency that has many expatriates who have registered to vote.