Mount Lebanon IV

This is the largest constituency in the country in terms of number of seats (13). It consists of the districts of Chouf and Aley and a stronghold of Jumblatt par excellence. In total, it includes five Maronite seats, one Greek Orthodox, one Greek Catholic, four Druze and two Sunni.

In 2018, the alliance list of the PSP and its allies, the Lebanese Forces and the Future Movement won nine seats out of 13. On the other hand, thanks to the proportional representation system, the FPM, which has a strong presence in the region, was able to grab three (Maronite), while the last (Druze) seat went without a battle to Talal Arslan, Walid Joumblatt's rival but to whom the latter traditionally grants one of the two Druze seats in Aley, by refraining from presenting a candidate against him.

This year, the Joumblatt’s party and the LF have again joined forces against the Aounists, but the Future Movement is missing. This is a fundamental fact, as Sunnis constitute a good third of the electorate in the Chouf. A massive demobilization of the pro-Hariri camp can only weaken, even if partially, the PSP-LF alliance.

In addition, it will be necessary to take into account the performance of the civil protest movement. In 2018, some activists individually obtained acceptable scores, but divisions in the ranks of civil society prevented them from influencing the vote in this constituency.