Mount Lebanon II

The constituency is the Metn district. It has eight seats: four Maronite, two Greek Orthodox, one Greek Catholic and one Armenian Orthodox. It is a stronghold of the Aounists, Sami Gemayel's Kataeb, Tachnag and former MP Michel Murr, who died last year. But the Lebanese Forces also have a strong presence there, even if in this region, which is rather atypical in this respect, their influence is less pronounced than that of their Kataeb rivals.

The latter, who have had two seats in this constituency since 2018, are preparing an alliance with some of the civil protest movements this year, in a joint list. The chances of this list to reach three electoral thresholds (and therefore three seats) are thus clearly strengthened, and this could be at the expense of the FPM and its allies.

Including Tachnag, the outgoing Aounist bloc has four seats. Will it be able to keep the same number of seats in the new Parliament that will result from the May 15 elections? The answer to this question depends on many factors: the Kataeb and the civil society groups, of course, the score of the LF, which this time has doubled the stakes by aiming for two seats instead of one, and on what the successor of Michel Murr will do.