Mount Lebanon III

Three Maronite seats, two Shiite and one Druze: a total of six seats are allocated to this constituency, which merges into the district of Baabda, or Metn-South. This is made up of two quite distinct regions: on the one hand, the coastline that covers the predominantly Christian (southeast) and Shiite (south) suburbs of Beirut, and on the other hand, the Druze-Christian mountain (upper Metn).

Until now, the constituency has been an Aounist stronghold, with the presence of a strong Shiite minority helping the FPM consolidate its hold on the three Christian seats in the district. But in 2018, thanks to the new voting system, Bassil's party lost a seat to the Lebanese Forces. In 2022, the prospect of losing a second seat due to the general decline in public opinion of the party led Bassil to cut loose the weak link of the Aounist party in the region, outgoing MP Hekmat Dib. The latter reacted by walking out of the FPM.

If this second seat is indeed lost, knowing that that of MP Alain Aoun is more or less guaranteed, who will benefit from it? There are two possibilities: it will either be a candidate from the powerful LF-PSP list or a representative of the opposition from the civil protest movement, which is preparing, with the likely support of the Kataeb, to form a viable list.

On the Shiite side, the Hezbollah-Amal tandem traditionally share the two seats; while it is very easy for Hezbollah to secure the seat, it is a harder task for Amal, but still guaranteed so far.