Beirut II

The large constituency encompassing all of the western neighborhoods of the capital, with a Sunni majority, and large Shiite and Christian minorities, had been an undisputed stronghold of the Hariri clan since the 1990s. In 2018, despite the new voting system that was clearly unfavorable to him, Saad Hariri’s Future Movement still managed (with Walid Joumblatt’s Progressive Socialist Party) to win six seats (four Sunni, one Druze and one Greek Orthodox) out of 11 in this constituency, which includes Mazraa, Moseitbeh, Bashoura, Marfa', Zoqaq al-Blat, Mina al-Hosn, Ain al-Mreisseh and Ras Beirut.

The Hezbollah-Amal-FPM alliance won four seats (two Shiite, one Sunni and one Protestant), while the last Sunni seat went to independent candidate Fouad Makhzoumi.

The withdrawal of Hariri and the Future Movement from the current elections opens this constituency to all possibilities and could strengthen the penetration of Hezbollah and its allies unless the situation is steered in a way that would remobilize the Sunni electorate around a list that is close to Hariri's choices.

The opposition movements could also make their way into this urban constituency, which, however, remains difficult to access due to a relatively high eligibility threshold.