The American envoy Thomas Barrack at Ain el-Tiné, June 19, 2025. Mohammad Yassine/L’Orient-Le Jour
BEIRUT — U.S. special envoy for Syria and Lebanon Tom Barrack posted a lengthy statement on X describing the situation in Lebanon and Syria as “the Next Pieces for Levant Peace,” as he prepares to wrap up his mission in the coming weeks.
In his post, Barrack reiterated calls for Hezbollah to disarm, warning that further delays could prompt Israel to relaunch its war in Lebanon. “Should Beirut continue to hesitate," he wrote, "Israel may act unilaterally — and the consequences would be grave.”
In that scenario, “Hezbollah’s military arm will inevitably face major confrontation with Israel” at a moment the party has already been weakened by the last war, he said.
The group’s political wing, he added, could find itself in “a position of certain isolation” just months before next year’s parliamentary elections — prompting it to seek a delay to “buy time – to rebuild militarily.”
Hezbollah could respond to a renewed Israeli offensive, he argued, by delaying the May 2026 parliamentary elections to “preserve its power base and regroup.”
“Postponing the 2026 elections under the pretext of war would ignite major chaos within Lebanon,” he added.
“The perception that one militia can suspend democracy could potentially erode public confidence in the state, invite regional interference, and risk pushing Lebanon from crisis into outright institutional breakdown,” he wrote.
In his message, Barrack argued that Hezbollah’s disarmament is necessary and so is the launch of “security and border discussions with Israel.”
He said the November 2024 cease-fire agreement between Israel and Lebanon “has failed,” claiming that no “direct agreement” was ever reached between Israel and Hezbollah, which means, he wrote, that “no real mechanism for enforcement [of the terms of the truce] exists,” as Israel continues daily strikes in southern Lebanon and occupies at least six positions on Lebanese soil.
The envoy, who is of Lebanese descent, painted a bleak picture of the country’s internal dynamics: “Iran’s continued funding of Hezbollah militia in spite of sanctions and a divided Lebanese [Cabinet] delivering mixed messages to its own Lebanese Armed Forces, who lack the funding and authority to act. The result was a fragile calm without peace, an army without authority and a government without control.”
According to Barrack, the government’s will to reclaim the state’s monopoly on arms “remains more aspiration than reality, constrained by Hezbollah’s political dominance and the fear of civil unrest.” He added that Lebanon's ministers “are trapped in sectarian paralysis and are attempting to make a good faith step forward, which Israel has completely discounted.”
All initiatives for 'peaceful solution' with Israel ' have stalled'
Barrack criticized Cabinet for declining to adopt his “One More Try” plan, presented over the summer, which proposed Hezbollah’s gradual disarmament in exchange for economic incentives.
The government had approved the goals of the plan in early August — angering Hezbollah — and tasked the army with disarming all militias according to a Lebanese Army proposal.
Barrack lamented that all U.S.-backed initiatives for a “peaceful” resolution between Lebanon and Israel, centered on economic incentives, “have stalled.” Lebanese authorities, he said, now face “a defining choice: to seize the path of national renewal or remain mired in paralysis and decline.”
His warning came a week after President Joseph Aoun called for direct negotiations with Israel to resolve outstanding issues, including the demarcation of the land border.
Abraham Accords: After Riyadh, the rest of the region
Turning to the Abraham Accords — the normalization deals between Arab states and Israel championed by former U.S. President Donald Trump — Barrack said that following Riyadh, which “now stands at the precipice of formal accession,” other countries in the region will follow, “drawn not by pressure but by prosperity.”
“Now is the time for Lebanon to act,” he urged.
He added that Lebanon will address these “complex issues” with the support of the new U.S. ambassador, Michel Issa — a close Trump friend and fellow Lebanese-American — whose appointment was approved by Congress two weeks ago.
Qaani: Minimum requirement for Lebanon is a return to pre-war lines
