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ANALYSIS

Negotiation or confrontation: What strategy to adopt against Hezbollah and Amal?

How far is the Amal-Hezbollah alliance willing to go to prevent the emergence of a new era in which it does not — at least in part — play a founding role?

Negotiation or confrontation: What strategy to adopt against Hezbollah and Amal?

New President Joseph Aoun (left) with Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam at Baabda Palace on Jan. 17, 2025. (Credit: AFP)

For a new world to emerge, must the old order necessarily disappear — at any cost?This is the question faced by all ruling powers during times of great transition, and Lebanon today is no exception. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam have been tasked with embodying what has been presented as a “new era.” But they must do so in a landscape where parliament still reflects old power dynamics and where Hezbollah remains an armed militia before being a political party. Given this reality, what strategy should be adopted? Negotiation or confrontation with the old order? Both approaches have their advantages and limitations. And both rest on uncertain wagers that, in Lebanon’s case, extend beyond the realm of politics.Salam could have announced his government in the days following his appointment. Riding the wave of...
For a new world to emerge, must the old order necessarily disappear — at any cost?This is the question faced by all ruling powers during times of great transition, and Lebanon today is no exception. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam have been tasked with embodying what has been presented as a “new era.” But they must do so in a landscape where parliament still reflects old power dynamics and where Hezbollah remains an armed militia before being a political party. Given this reality, what strategy should be adopted? Negotiation or confrontation with the old order? Both approaches have their advantages and limitations. And both rest on uncertain wagers that, in Lebanon’s case, extend beyond the realm of politics.Salam could have announced his government in the days following his appointment. Riding...