Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea in an interview with local channel LBCI, Nov. 7, 2024. (Credit: @DrSamirGeagea/X)
Can war and political confrontation go hand in hand? It is with this logic in mind that Lebanese Forces (LF) party leader Samir Geagea seems to be approaching the current situation in Lebanon.
While Hezbollah is confronting Israel, the Christian leader, who sees himself as spearheading the opposition to Hezbollah, is taking the opportunity to further raise his voice against his adversary. In fact, he has gone so far as to declare his willingness to participate in a parliamentary session dedicated to the presidential election, which has been blocked since June 2023 by the Amal Movement and Hezbollah, even without the participation of a single Shiite deputy.
This rise in tone comes in the wake of the U.S. presidential election victory of Donald Trump, known for his hostility toward the pro-Iranian party to which Hezbollah belongs, and could give the Israelis a green light to continue their military offensive.
However, the LF leader certainly does not have any expectations. He is, with no doubt, aware that such a scenario is far from becoming a reality, as the Parliament keys are in the hands of its Speaker Nabih Berri, a Shiite.
Until the time comes to elect the future president, Samir Geagea is sticking to certain constants: to bring the war to a halt in Lebanon and the implementation of international resolutions calling for the disarmament of Hezbollah.
Geagea covered all of these points in an interview with local TV station LBCI on Thursday, starting with the issue of the presidential vacuum, which he described as "the country's biggest problem." More than two years after the end of Michel Aoun's term, Geagea did not mince his words: "I agree to participate in a session dedicated to the presidential election without the Shiites," he said, stressing that "the Constitution and the national pact allow for this to be done." "If the Maronites oppose a certain issue, will the country be paralyzed because of this refusal?" the LF leader questioned.
Geagea's stance came just a few months after Berri nipped in the bud a proposal by Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Gebran Bassil to hold a dialogue focusing on the presidential election, even without the participation of the opposing LF.
While Berri claims that he had rejected Bassil’s proposal to avoid disregarding a large Christian bloc, Geagea offers a different explanation: "He doesn't want to convene a session for the presidential election. It is this stalling that has brought the country to the brink of collapse," he said, before continuing: "The solution lies either in amending the Constitution to establish a new fundamental law in light of the current practices, or in maintaining the existing texts in force and holding the election.” “No to a pre-election consensus,” he added, knowing that shortly after the assassination by Israel of Hassan Nasrallah, former leader of Hezbollah, Berri had called for the election of a consensus president.
Joseph Aoun: ‘Yes, but…’
Regarding the option of electing a consensus president, Army Commander Joseph Aoun was one of the first names put forward by the LF as a potential candidate. On Thursday, Geagea provided some clarification: "He's a serious candidate, and we're not vetoing his name, but before formalizing our support, we'll be discussing political issues with him to get an idea of his approach to certain issues, such as cross-border smuggling," he said.
However, the LF leader has been a staunch defender of the army and its commander, who have been in Hezbollah's crosshairs for several days, particularly after Israel kidnapped a young captain (described as a Hezbollah member by Tel Aviv, but Hezbollah denied) in Batroun at the beginning of November. Geagea responded to the recent comments made by Hezbollah's new leader, Naim Qassem, who, in his latest speech, called on the army to "clarify what happened." “We are the ones who should be asking you questions because you are the ones waging war based on misguided calculations," he replied.
“The army is the target of the largest campaign of false accusations. It was not the army, but Hezbollah, that chose to wage this war," he emphasized. "How did they [the Israelis] get to Batroun?" he asked, highlighting that it's Hezbollah that has a naval force and has been marginalizing the army for 30 years.
This prompted Geagea to say that the recent campaign against the Lebanese Army is intended to "undermine its role" in the postwar period, as it is "the only entity capable of filling the vacuum [by deploying its forces] in southern Lebanon [following Hezbollah's withdrawal]." But, we're not there yet.
Although he does not fear that tensions between the displaced persons who fled the war and their hosts could lead to a civil war, Geagea acknowledged that the situation will not improve any time soon. More importantly, he stated that any lasting solution would inevitably involve the implementation of U.N. Resolutions 1559 (2004), which demands the disarmament of militias; 1701 (2006), which requires Hezbollah's withdrawal from the south of the Litani River; and 1680 (2006), which calls for the delineation of the border with Syria. The implementation of these resolutions is necessary to "avoid the worst," he argued.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient Le-Jour.