We have every reason to oppose this war. It is being waged in total violation of international law, without even attempting to preserve appearances. It is being led by a man, Donald Trump, whose sole compass is the preservation of his interests, in the most self-serving sense of the word, and the glorification of his ego nourished by all that is most vulgar in our era.
It could achieve the dream of another, Benjamin Netanyahu, a war criminal whose country has annihilated Gaza, dissected the West Bank, and reshaped the face of the Middle East. It pushes us even further into a world where the strongest can do absolutely anything, including assassinating a head of state without having to answer for it in the slightest, and in a region under the dominance of Israeli military hegemony.
As if all that were not enough, it is as uncertain as any war aiming to topple a regime that has been in place for decades, so much so that we could end up paying the price for many years to come.
And yet, we are not opposed to it. Not as we should be, in any case. Perhaps we will regret these words just as so many intellectuals in the region have regretted supporting the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, a moral and strategic disaster that profoundly destabilized the Middle East. But in the meantime, we cannot help but consider that this war, launched Saturday by the American-Israeli partnership against Iran, is — for the moment — the least bad option in a scenario where, in any case, there were only bad options.
This war confronts us with all our contradictions. But what was the alternative? Even weakened, even isolated, even shunned by the vast majority of its population, the regime could persist indefinitely, as long as its security apparatus was ready to massacre every last Iranian to ensure its survival.
A diplomatic agreement would only have been possible on the nuclear issue, which is no longer as strategic as it once was, and would probably have played into the regime’s hands to the detriment of its people and the region.
Using force as an instrument of conflict resolution is obviously a fantasy in the Middle East, even more than elsewhere. But the idea that the Iranian regime could change — let alone fall — without the massive use of force is even more illusory.
A regime built solely on violence and propaganda for decades creates, de facto, with or without foreign intervention, not only the impossibility of being overthrown peacefully but also of ridding itself of its legacy without plunging the country into chaos or violence.
Trump and Netanyahu will obviously be responsible for what we will experience in the coming months and years, but Khamenei is just as responsible as they are.
The first two will be judged by history according to the success or failure of their operation. There is almost no doubt that they will succeed in decapitating the regime, partially or completely destroying its ballistic and nuclear programs, and exerting pressure on it as never before.
Since Oct. 7, 2023, we have consistently overestimated the capabilities of the Iranian axis and underestimated those of the American-Israeli partnership. The difference in power is actually so great that the latter can wage a war in which they are able to bomb or eliminate any target at any time, without the former being able to inflict a sufficiently heavy response to make them back down. But then what? What’s the plan?
The American-Israeli partnership aims to weaken the regime so significantly that it is forced either to capitulate or to be overthrown internally by a new wave of protests. This would be a repeat of what Israel did to Hezbollah with a sort of “Iranian Naim Qassem” who would end up signing an agreement meeting all American demands.
Or a scenario in which the regime, after being bombed and having its pillars eliminated, collapses under the weight of internal dissent, street pressure, and American-Israeli strikes. At the end of this war, Iran will no longer be a regional power and its capacity for harm will be, if not annihilated, at least greatly reduced. But if the regime does not capitulate, is the American-Israeli partnership ready to fight a long war? And if the security apparatus nonetheless holds on, if the street does not succeed in overthrowing it, if thousands of protesters are killed or if what follows is chaos, who will bear responsibility?
Khamenei has poisoned the lives of Iranians, Lebanese, Syrians, Iraqis, Yemenis, and many others. His legacy consists only of ruins, repression, lies, petty calculations, and strategic errors that have ultimately led to his downfall.
Whatever the outcome of this war, the Islamic Republic as we have known it will no longer exist. Whatever its outcome, the Middle East will have turned the page on 1979, an era of fanaticism and desolation that has cost the region so much.
This war is probably the climax of the regional reconfiguration underway since Oct. 7, which has triggered a series of shocks leading to the collapse of the self-proclaimed 'Axis of Resistance.'
But the new Middle East that has emerged is far — even very far — from being a guarantee of greater peace or stability.
The supremacists have changed camps, strategies, and means, but they, too, are far from having disappeared. They occupy, if not the top, positions at the doors of power, in what is now the most powerful country in the region.
Some might conclude that the new Middle East is, or will be, even worse than the old one. For the Palestinians, this seems obvious, but for the rest of the region, it remains more than debatable for now.
All that can be said, however, is that the fundamental issue of this conflict is not to decide whether the old or the new Middle East is more desirable. Rather, it is to know whether we will continue to live in this in-between world where we endure both the harmful effects of the new and the remnants of the old, without any positive balance emerging, or if we will definitively tip into a new era where the entire region risks being reconfigured around the Israeli question.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.
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