Hacking Lebanese Politics #13: Iran in Lebanon: How deep does the influence go?

On June 12, Israeli airstrikes hit nuclear sites inside Iran — and suddenly, Iran and Israel were trading direct fire, not just threats or proxy attacks.

The region held its breath. In Lebanon, panic set in.

Would Hezbollah jump in again — as it did in October 2023, when its “support front” with Gaza turned parts of the South into a warzone?

To understand what happens next, we ask:

How much of Hezbollah’s power and decisions still come from Iran?

This week, we break down how Iran became so deeply embedded in Lebanon.

1. So, how did it start?

Rewind to the 1950s–70s: Young Lebanese Shiites were angry, marginalized, and looking for a cause. Most lived in poor, rural areas of southern Lebanon and Beqaa, shut out of Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing. The 1943 National Pact gave Christians the presidency, Sunnis the premiership — and left Shiites with the weak speakership of Parliament.

Many joined secular groups — the Communist Party, or Palestinian factions like Fatah — hoping revolution would bring dignity. But after the 1969 Cairo Agreement, armed Palestinian guerrillas operated freely in southern Lebanon, clashing with locals, grabbing land, and triggering Israeli airstrikes that devastated the Shiite-majority area.

More on the Cairo Agreement here:

Hacking Lebanese Politics #10: Lebanon’s Palestinian camps and the 1969 Cairo Agreement

When Lebanon’s Civil War broke out in 1975, Shiites became cannon fodder for mostly Sunni Palestinian fedayeen.

Then came 1979: Iran’s revolution. Tehran now aimed to export its ideology across the region — and found fertile ground in Lebanon’s angry, increasingly religious Shiite communities.

In 1982, after Israel invaded Lebanon, Iran quietly sent 1,000 IRGC troops to the Beqaa. They trained fighters, armed militias, and spread Iran’s ideology — especially Wilayat al-Faqih, or rule by Islamic jurists — and loyalty to Supreme Leader Khomeini.

Even before Hezbollah officially formed in 1985, Iran-backed militants were likely behind the 1983 suicide bombing attack of U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut (241 killed) and the French barracks (58 killed).

Meanwhile, dozens of young Lebanese clerics were sent to study in Iran’s holy city of Qom — among them Hassan Nasrallah, Abbas al-Musawi, and Subhi al-Tufayli, all future Hezbollah leaders.

Iran wasn’t just influencing Hezbollah — it was building it from scratch.

Last week's edition:

Hacking Lebanese Politics #12: What’s the deal with UNIFIL and why does everyone seem mad at them?

2. Hezbollah’s rise: How much credit goes to Iran?

Through the ’80s, it trained fighters, funded operations, and shaped leadership. And through the ’90s and 2000s, it doubled down — pouring hundreds of millions into the party and its Shiite support base, funding things like:

• Rebuilding homes after Israeli airstrikes
• Running schools and hospitals
• Paying salaries to fighters and officials
• Building a media empire (Al-Manar, websites, magazines)
• Supporting martyrs’ families

The result? Hezbollah could operate like a state within a state — especially in southern Lebanon, the Beqaa, and Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Iran also sent Hezbollah’s future leaders to Qom to absorb:

• Revolutionary ideology
• Loyalty to Iran’s Supreme Leader
• Political strategy to run a Shiite-Islamist movement

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Hacking Lebanese Politics #11: What is Kafala, the system behind an unfolding slavery case in Lebanon?

Crucially, when Lebanon’s civil war ended, Iran helped Hezbollah stay armed while others disarmed, supplying weapons, training guerrilla fighters, and building surveillance, drone, and comms systems.

By 2006, Hezbollah had thousands of rockets, shocking Israel and boosting its “resistance” image.

And in 2013, Iran activated Hezbollah again, sending thousands of its fighters to defend Assad in Syria, backed by Iranian weapons and intel.

3- As Iran struggles, could Hezbollah start to drift?

Right now, Iran is under direct Israeli attack. Hezbollah, Iran’s strongest regional ally, is holding back.

 That’s raising real questions:

Will Hezbollah jump in? Or is this the moment it finally starts to step away from Tehran’s war?

So far, the party’s messaging has been cautious. No threats. No promises. Just “tactical ambiguity.” Some of its officials say Iran can “defend itself.” Others emphasize that Hezbollah’s decisions are coordinated with Lebanon’s army and President Joseph Aoun, not just with Iran.

Behind the scenes, Lebanese military sources say there's been constant communication between the army and Hezbollah since the first signs of escalation. The goal? Keep Lebanon out of it.

Even Hezbollah insiders admit the party is stretched thin, weakened by Syria, under daily Israeli strikes, and worried about the safety of its fighters and community.