Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Haifa amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025. (Credit: AFP/ AHMAD GHARABL)
For the last three days the skies over Lebanon have been ablaze as a war that has been simmering for decades between Israel and Iran turned hot. As the death toll on both sides ramps up, and the region as we know it hangs on a knife-edge, we recap our most critical reporting from the early days of this war. There are a lot of moving parts here, so bear with us…
The escalation began in the early hours of Friday morning when Israel unleashed Operation Rising Lion, a sweeping air campaign targeting over 100 military and nuclear sites across Iran. The attack killed several high-ranking officials and nuclear scientists, notably among them were the head of the Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Salami and the chief of staff of the Iranian army, Mohammad Bagheri.
Much speculation focused on the extent to which the U.S. was involved in the attack. We solicited the opinion of military experts to glean a better understanding. War columnist Guillaume Ancel told us why he is almost certain that the U.S. was involved in the attack, while professor Thomas Juneau explained how much damage Israel could inflict on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure without direct U.S. involvement.
By Friday evening, Iran had begun its retaliation, sending missiles that flew across the skies of the region, penetrated the Iron Dome and landed in the heart of Israel. At this point, the declaration of war was certain. Our editor-in-chief discussed the questions on everyone’s mind: How long could the conflict last? Which side will capitulate first? Are there any off-ramps left on the table?
Meanwhile, Lebanon began edging closer to an all-too familiar precipice and the well-rehearsed question – will Lebanon be dragged into war? – took on its latest iteration. Hezbollah was quick to assure the public that they would not instigate a retaliation from Lebanese soil, while the Lebanese government expressed positive signals of alignment with the group on the issue.
That being said, the challenge on President Joseph Aoun’s hands remains immense and Hezbollah is not the only actor in Lebanon capable of triggering an escalation, as Jeanine Jalkh highlighted in her latest article.
The other major dimension of this conflict is the sudden vulnerability of the Iranian leadership. On Sunday, this once inconceivable notion was brought to the fore when Netanyahu told Fox News, “regime change could be a consequence” of the conflict, and reports emerged that an Israeli plan to assassinate Ali Khameini was vetoed by the Americans.
Is Israel trying to topple the Iranian regime? Asked Laure-Maissa Farjallah. To better understand the nature of Khamenei’s grip on power and how likely this outcome may be, Soulayma Mardam Bey examined the last 35 years of the Supreme Leader’s rule and the mixed sentiment he evokes across the Middle East.
