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Hacking Lebanese Politics #9: A quick catch-up on the municipal elections

You don’t like Lebanese politics. You don’t get it. It’s the same faces, the same talk, on repeat. But here’s the thing — it shapes your daily life. So what if we made it make sense? Clearly, concisely, maybe even excitingly?

This week, run down what's happened in the municipal elections so far.

Hacking Lebanese Politics #9: A quick catch-up on the municipal elections

You blinked and suddenly three rounds of municipal elections were over. What did we learn? Who came out on top? And what does it mean in terms of the general political mood, especially for the change movement?

Let’s break it down, fast and clean.


1. A quick look at the results in the governorates so far:

 Mount Lebanon: A Christian shift

 The first round on May 4 saw Lebanese Forces (LF) and their Kataeb allies dominate the Christian scene. They swept major municipalities like Jounieh and Jbeil, leaving their main (Christian) rival, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) licking its wounds.

How? A mix of:

  • Smart alliances with local families and independents
  • High polarization around Hezbollah’s weapons, which, according to some analysts, contributed to the rising popularity of the LF.

Biggest absence? The 2019 protest movement. In areas where they once looked promising (Metn, Chouf-Aley), they didn’t even show up, except for some small wins in Deir al-Qamar. 

Previously on Hacking Lebanese Politics:

Hacking Lebanese Politics #8: Why did the UAE lift its Lebanon travel ban?

 North Lebanon and Akkar: Power shifting, chaos brewing

On May 11, northern Lebanon voted. Here’s the quick read:

  • LF-Kataeb extended their gains in the cazas of Batroun and Zgharta, even challenging Marada and FPM in their own strongholds.
  • In Tripoli, it was messy: Four lists, low turnout, and no clear winner. The protest-linked Lel Fayha list did poorly, while the Vision of Tripoli (backed by Ashraf Rifi, Faisal Karami, the Tripoli’s Fabric list (of former PM Najib Mikati and MP Ihab Matar) and others (from traditional parties)) edged ahead, but no list secured a majority. Expect deadlock.
  • In Akkar, the FPM held its ground, especially in Christian areas. Sunni votes? Divided and disorganized.

Want more Hacking Lebanese Politics?:


Hacking Lebanese Politics #7: What’s up with the Druze?

Beirut and the Bekaa: Protest politics in decline

 May 18 brought the third wave. The story?

- In Beirut, the big-tent list made up of all major traditional parties won. But for the first time, a candidate from another list managed to win.

-  The turnout was low and stood at 21 percent.

- Meanwhile, Beirut Madinati, the 2016 breakout stars of the protest movement, flopped this time. Some analysts suggested that this could be blamed on the smear campaigns and sectarian pressure the list faced. But voters also seemed kind of over it.

 

  • In Zahle (a major and important city in the Bekaa), LF scored “total victory” against a broad coalition that included other traditional parties and notable families in the areas (Skaff, Kataeb, and Tachnag, etc.).
  • In Baalbeck: In its home turf, Hezbollah secured near-total control of local councils, often through uncontested lists. 

 

Bottom line: Traditional parties are back on top, and the 2019 uprising camp seems to be losing steam.

 

2. Why did the change movement collapse?

 According to some analysts, the decline of the 2019 protest movement in these elections may be due to a few key factors:

  •  Fragmentation: The MPs elected in 2022 have struggled to stay united or build momentum.
  • Lack of a clear project: Many voters want more than anti-establishment slogans — they’re looking for a real alternative.
  • Sectarian concerns: Community fears around identity and representation are rising again, pushing voters back toward traditional parties.

Did you miss this one?:

Hacking Lebanese Politics #5: Can the state reclaim control over all military weapons?


 3. Coming up next: Southern Lebanon votes

Mark your calendar: May 24 is the final round, in South Lebanon, a Hezbollah-Amal stronghold.

But here's the twist:

  • Southern Lebanon is still reeling from war damage and Israeli airstrikes.
  • Some villages are barely safe.
  • Voting will happen in “safe zones.” This could be a first step toward long-awaited megacenters, letting people vote where they actually live. The government says: No delays. Elections will happen, even if it takes creative logistics.
You blinked and suddenly three rounds of municipal elections were over. What did we learn? Who came out on top? And what does it mean in terms of the general political mood, especially for the change movement?Let’s break it down, fast and clean.1. A quick look at the results in the governorates so far: Mount Lebanon: A Christian shift The first round on May 4 saw Lebanese Forces (LF) and their Kataeb allies dominate the Christian scene. They swept major municipalities like Jounieh and Jbeil, leaving their main (Christian) rival, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) licking its wounds.How? A mix of:Smart alliances with local families and independentsHigh polarization around Hezbollah’s weapons, which, according to some analysts, contributed to the rising popularity of the LF.Biggest absence? The 2019 protest movement. In areas where...