Illustration by Jaimee Lee Haddad.
Recently, you’ve heard it whispered. Maybe even shouted.
“Normalization with Israel.”
It’s one of the most sensitive and controversial topics in Lebanese politics — and it seems like it’s back on the table.
Former President Elias Sarkis once said: “Lebanon will be the last Arab state to sign peace with Israel.”
Does this still hold true today? After the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, the devastating war in Gaza, and months of clashes between Hezbollah and Israel, something has shifted.
So, why now? Who’s talking about it? And what would it actually mean for Lebanon?
1. Why is this ‘taboo’ back in the spotlight?
Because the powers that be are suddenly saying the quiet part out loud, the regional game is shifting and Lebanon’s being sucked into it.
The latest Gaza war hit hard. Hezbollah jumped in early to support Hamas, but it’s been hit hard: fighters killed, infrastructure damaged and tens of thousands displaced in southern Lebanon.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump is back in the White House. His chummy ties with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — the same duo behind the Abraham Accords a.k.a the Arab-Israeli agreements to normalize relations starting in 2020 — signal that nothing is off-limits.
So it’s no surprise that things are being said out loud again.
Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar openly called for normalization with Lebanon.
Meanwhile, U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus recently dropped by Beirut, and while she made it clear that normalization isn’t a U.S. priority, she pushed for the full implementation of U.N. Resolution 1701, which calls for disarmingHezbollah.
But on the eve of Ortagus’ second visit to Lebanon, Foreign Minister Joe Rajji (affiliated with the Lebanese Forces (LF) and frequently criticized by Hezbollah)addressed Parliament, reaffirming the country’s official rejection of any normalization with Israel.
No ultimatums. No timelines.
But the message? The conversation is back.
2. Why is normalization such a touchy topic for Lebanon, and what’s the bigger picture?
Lebanon’s history with Israel isn’t just political. It’s complicated, painful, and filled with bloodshed.
Unlike the Gulf and Arab countries that normalized relations through the Abraham Accords in recent years, Lebanon has lived through multiple wars with Israel, invasions and an extended occupation.
After Israel’s creation and the 1948 Arab-Israeli war, Lebanon signed an armistice with Israel, a truce of sorts that’s still technically in force. But that didn’t stop the fighting.
During Lebanon’s 1975–1990 Civil War, Israel invaded twice, in 1978 and again in 1982, eventually occupying southern Lebanon for 22 years until it withdrew in 2000. The tensions didn’t stop there.
In 2006, Hezbollah kidnapped Israeli soldiers at the border, triggering a month-long devastating war. The U.N. brokered a cease-fire, things calmed down. A bit.
Fast forward to 2022, Lebanon and Israel reached a maritime border agreement, a rare diplomatic breakthrough.
But this issue isn’t just historical or military because it’s deeply tied to Lebanon’s very fractured internal politics.
Every major community in Lebanon — Sunni, Shiite, Christian, or Druze — has its own allies and regional backers. Some are closer to Iran (Shiites), others to the West (Christians, mainly France), or Gulf states (Sunnis).
This makes the question of normalization way bigger than Lebanon-Israel. It’s more about regional alignments, identity and influence, all playing out on Lebanese soil.
3. What would normalization even mean now?
For Arab states who’ve been there like the UAE, Bahrain or Morocco, normalization brought new investment deals, security cooperation, and diplomatic leverage with the U.S.
On paper, Lebanon could also benefit: peace, economic recovery, and international support.
But in reality? It’s more complicated.
As things stand now, especially with Israel repeatedly breaching the November 2024 cease-fire, including a recent strike in the capital that killed a senior Hezbollah figure, any deal seems far-fetched. Especially since several key flashpoints remain unresolved:
- Disputed territories (like the Shebaa farms)
- Still-occupied areas in southern Lebanon
- Hezbollah’s weapons and political role
But just as important is public sentiment. Lebanon still sees normalization as a red line, as the foreign minister recently stressed.
Not to mention that before him, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam also summed it up clearly:
“No one in Lebanon wants normalization of relations with Israel, which is, moreover, rejected by all Lebanese.”
So far, the topic hasn’t been formally raised in negotiations. But the fact that it is being mentioned, at all, signals a shift in regional calculations.
