This began long before Trump and Netanyahu; long before Smotrich and Ben-Gvir; long before the systematic destruction of Gaza; long before West Bank settlements; long before the latest ethnic cleansing and annexation plans.
Israel’s history is that of a state founded after centuries of oppression, decades of struggles and conquests and the worst atrocity of the 20th century. It is the story of a country meant to be a refuge but built — despite profound changes over the past few decades — on a balance of power and the denial, more or less acknowledged, of the ‘other.’
Palestine’s history is much more linear: it is that of a gradual and ongoing dispossession of its land and identity. It is, of course, made up of divisions and one-upmanship, but all of that seems secondary when considering this cruel reality — that of the fragmentation and erasure of the Palestinian body. Are we at the end of this history? Are we at the final stage of Palestine’s disappearance?
It’s 2026. Or 2027. Or 2030. Whatever. Gaza is Israeli, as is the West Bank. Most Palestinians were driven out. They are now in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Sudan or Somalia. Those who remained live in camps, where entrances and exits are controlled by the Israeli army. They have no rights, no representatives, no hope and no demands.
Israel has normalized its relations with Syria, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. It has finally turned itself into an illiberal state where power is contested between the far-right and further-right, between populist nationalism and the ultra-orthodox. But it is a powerful state, sure of its strength, which feeds on the criticisms of the left and liberals, convinced that the march of history is in its favor.
Who today can say that this scenario is totally unrealistic? Who today can seriously believe that the Palestinian cause will triumph? That injustice cannot be tolerated indefinitely, that the balance of power will inevitably shift, and that Israel will have to make amends because of its internal divides and international pressure?
Is there anyone left who believes this? Is there anyone left who thinks that Palestine will soon see the light of day, after 77 years of losing out, after being the blind spot of the liberal world when the latter was triumphant, after what Gaza has just went through and after the shift in an international order where everything is about a balance of power?
Does anyone still believe in the advent of the two-state solution, or the even more illusory one of a single bi-national state? Who is going to help Palestinians, themselves disunited and disorganized? Trump’s United States? Vladimir Putin’s Russia? Xi Jinping’s China? Europe, which is already struggling to defend itself? The Arab countries that only think of their own survival?
Fortunately, history can surprise us, and cynicism can show its limits. Perhaps the liberal order is dead, but not yet buried. Perhaps its resurrection will also involve Palestine. Perhaps the tens of thousands of Israelis demonstrating to safeguard their democracy will tomorrow become the majority and understand that their destiny is linked to that of the Palestinians. Perhaps the future American leadership will distance itself from Israel, and Europeans and other countries around the world will exert pressure on it. Perhaps the Arabs will use all the leverage at their disposal to redress the balance of power. After all, even the Assad regime eventually fell.
But it all seems so far-fetched today. Far removed from what Palestinians and their supporters experience daily. The truth is that Netanyahu is on the verge of realizing his two dreams: the destruction of the Iran-led axis and the annihilation of the Palestinian cause. The truth is that the world’s leading power is behind him. That the era is on his side. And no matter how indignant we are, no matter how much we denounce, no matter how much we call for mobilization and the awakening of consciences, our words are losing a little more of their meaning every day.
The Gaza war has left its mark on the Arab world and far beyond. It will leave deep scars within all these societies and the international system. It has not been digested and will not be soon.
But while the war is not yet over, while each day still brings its share of horrors, it is already almost forgotten. Pushed to a second or even a third place. Including, and perhaps even more so than elsewhere in the Arab world. Normalization is no longer taboo. Palestine is no longer a priority. The cause has not drawn its last breath, but that breath has never seemed as close as it does now.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour and translated by Joelle El-Khoury.
