Lebanese soldiers at a checkpoint on a road in the Marjayoun region of south Lebanon on Nov. 28, 2024. (Credit: AFP)
Although the implementation of the cease-fire monitoring mechanism has been delayed, these incidents are not considered a prelude to renewed conflict as neither side is in a position to sustain a war, according to a security official closely monitoring the situation.
The attacks are thus attempts by both sides to set new rules for the period ahead. However, according to the same official, it is clear that neither party can claim victory, as the U.S. remains the ultimate arbiter.
Israel's greatest fear is that Hezbollah will return south of the Litani River under the guise of displaced residents returning to the region. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has suffered a severe blow with the loss of its leadership, particularly its charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah.
As a result, Hezbollah now faces the necessity of recalibrating to a more Lebanese-centric role within the framework of a broader plan aimed at reshaping the balance of power in the region for the next decade.
Developments in Syria must be closely watched in this context. According to the security official, the goal may not be to overthrow the already weakened Syrian regime, but to pressure it into distancing itself from Iran and shutting down arms supply routes.
While it may be an exaggeration to suggest that Syrian opposition forces are being manipulated by the Americans, the timing of the new offensive against the Damascus regime is closely tied to the war in Gaza and the cease-fire in Lebanon, the official added.
Opposition forces are advancing rapidly in the north, now reaching Hama and within 25 kilometers of Homs, though they have yet to gain full control of the country. Moreover, many Arab and international actors are not openly supportive of them taking power.
Some factions in Lebanon are concerned about the impact of developments in Syria on the country’s internal situation. The return of displaced Syrians, which began with the expansion of the Israeli offensive into Lebanon, has already slowed.
Reports now indicate a reverse trend, with new Syrian refugees arriving as they flee the intensifying conflict in Syria. According to the security official, there are no significant concerns about potential clashes between various Syrian factions in Lebanon, such as between Bab al-Tabbaneh (Sunni) and Jabal Mohsen (Alawite) in Tripoli, or even between Islamist groups aligned with the Syrian opposition and Hezbollah.
Firstly, Lebanon's various security and military forces are actively mobilized to prevent such clashes. Second, the foreign actors — Western and Arab — that played a role in brokering the agreement with Israel are keen to avoid widespread destabilization in Lebanon, which could upend the regional balance at a time when the U.S. and its allies are seeking solutions.
Lebanon is indeed facing a threat to its stability should the international and regional climate become volatile. Among these threats are the Palestinian camps, where various armed factions could decide either to launch attacks against Israel or to engage in internal conflicts.
There are also the Syrian refugee camps, which could become arenas of conflict, either between pro- and anti-Syrian regime factions or between Syrian groups and Lebanese parties. Internal incidents between various Lebanese factions also remain a concern — some are attempting to exploit what they perceive as Hezbollah's weakening to gain political advantages, while others aim to assert that they remain unaffected by these changes.
All these possibilities, if triggered, could drag the Lebanese Army into a quagmire, weakening it at a time when the full responsibility for implementing the cease-fire agreement rests squarely on its shoulders.
For all these reasons, the security official does not believe internal unrest will break out in Lebanon. On the contrary, they believe that the country stands on the edge of a period of stability.
However, this will require Lebanese factions to rise to the occasion and unite around a president who poses no challenge to any of them. Ultimately, in all the major turning points Lebanon has faced, there is always one party that wins and another that loses. However, the key is to allow the losing side to save face while avoiding giving the winner an overly decisive victory.
After all, regional balances are ever-changing — the strong camp today may weaken tomorrow and vice versa. This is why it is crucial to strengthen internal unity and state institutions, enabling Lebanon to withstand potential regional and international shifts.
This article was translated from L'Orient-Le Jour.