The president of Hezbollah's Executive Council, Hachem Safieddine. (Screen capture from al-Mayadeen channel, January 2024.)
The king is dead, long live the king? The question is not as simple in the case of the expected succession process of the former Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, whose death was confirmed by the party on Saturday, 18 hours after the massive strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs the previous day.
While a replacement will surely be designated, especially in such a delicate phase where fierce fighting between Israel and the militia continues, it is paradoxically because of this war that the designation or election of a new leader is made difficult. While the sounds of cannons have not yet ceased and the Israeli high command promises a “long war,” vowing to settle scores with Hezbollah and its infrastructure, logic suggests that the party will probably not reveal the name of its next leader anytime soon and risk condemning him from the outset to become a target.
This opinion is shared by several experts on Hezbollah, who emphasize that a public announcement of the potential successor's name would not be a good idea. "At most, the party could designate or elect a person whose name will not be revealed, who could act temporarily until the situation becomes clearer," said Ali al-Amine, an analyst known for his hostility towards the party. Officially, it is the Shura Council [consultative council], the party’s supreme body, that elects the Secretary-General, whose three-year mandate is theoretically renewable only once. The council – whose decisions are subject to the authority of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – typically chooses from among its peers.
This council includes Naim Kassem, Deputy Secretary-General, Mohammad Yazbek, President of the Judicial Council, Ibrahim Amine al-Sayed, who leads the Political Council, Hachem Safieddine, head of the Executive Council, Hussein Khalil, the Secretary-General’s right-hand man, and Mohammad Raad, head of the parliamentary bloc and President of the Parliamentary Council.
It was by the members of the Shura that Sobhi Toufayli was elected in 1989, followed by Abbas Moussaoui in 1991, who was assassinated a year later by Israel. He was succeeded by Hassan Nasrallah, first elected in 1992 and then in 1995 for a second term. Since then, even the principle of election has been abolished at the levels of Secretary-General and the Shura.
This explains the long 32-year tenure of Nasrallah. "The problem," noted Mohanad Hage Ali, a researcher at Carnegie, "is that the Shura Council must meet to debate and decide. But that will be very difficult in such a context, with a sword of Damocles now hanging over the heads of party members.” The Shura may eventually decide to bypass elections and simply designate the candidate, citing exceptional circumstances.
Hachem Safieddine?
While it is unclear who could succeed Nasrallah, the leading candidate so far is Hachem Safieddine, a man very close to Tehran. Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah, resembles him. He also has a similar voice and a slight 'r' pronunciation defect. These superficial resemblances could work in his favor. However, uncertainties remain about his fate after the strike on Friday, which allegedly targeted Hezbollah’s headquarters, although former MP Nawar Sahili, a senior party official, asserted that he is still alive.
The Executive Council President was born in 1964 in the Sour district. He studied religion in Iran, in the holy city of Qom in the 1980s, enabling him to develop good relations with Tehran. His brother, Abdallah Safieddine, is Hezbollah’s representative in Iran. His son Reda is married to Zeinab Soleimani, the daughter of the influential leader of the Revolutionary Guards' external operations, Qasem Soleimani, assassinated in January 2020 in Baghdad. "An Iranian product through and through," said Shia opponents about him.
Tehran’s Influence
It is precisely Iran that remains the decisive factor in the rise of Hezbollah’s new leader. During this transitional period where geopolitical balances are seriously being challenged and cards reshuffled, it remains to be seen what, in Tehran’s eyes, will be the appropriate profile for the next Hezbollah leader, its Lebanese ally.
"It is important that the party's next number one understands Iran’s interests, particularly its desire to conclude a deal that could lead to lifting sanctions. A move deemed vital for stabilizing a regime that has realized its coffers are empty," commented Ali Fathollah Nejad, an Iranian expert and director of the Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG) in Berlin. He will therefore need to take into account the policy of openness towards the United States that the Islamic Republic has just initiated, and its desire to regain a place in the community of nations.
The speech given a few days ago by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian before the U.N. General Assembly is significant in this regard. Addressing the American people, he expressed a desire to open a new chapter that would recognize Iran’s legitimate security concerns. "Sanctions are inhumane," he said, declaring himself ready to conclude economic, social and security partnerships with international powers and neighboring countries.
A shift in direction and priorities that "could complicate the situation as well as any potential Iranian response to the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah," analyzed Ali Fathollah Nejad. "The strategic interests of the regime must be taken into account by the new leadership of Hezbollah."
There are so many unknowns that are difficult to address, as Israel continues its relentless campaign against Hezbollah, which has lost its most charismatic leader — one who has stamped his mark on the party and achieved, in the eyes of its popular base, "victories" (the withdrawal of Israel in 2000 and the 2006 war). To al-Amine, it’s more a time for raising questions than for providing answers.
"What will be the nature of the mission that Hezbollah is called to fulfill in the upcoming phase? Will it continue its transnational resistance or prioritize the internal Lebanese scene? Finally, what will happen to Iran's affiliates in a region undergoing radical transformation?" the analyst wondered. The answers to these questions will determine the profile of the next Secretary-General of the Shiite party.
This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour.
