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Hezbollah opts for a temporary calm, in anticipation of Nasrallah’s speech

A Hezbollah official considers it too early to examine Lebanon's defense strategy, as the timing is not right, either domestically or regionally.

Hezbollah opts for a temporary calm, in anticipation of Nasrallah’s speech

Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. (AFP archive photo)

After it was subtly targeted by President Michel Aoun’s speech Monday, one should not expect Hezbollah to express an official reaction anytime soon. As usual, the party will take some time to digest the messages it has received and to contemplate its response.

For the first time since the start of his term, the president, who sought to make an assessment of the shortcomings of current political life and the system in place, questioned the arms of the Iran-backed party with whom he inked a MoU in 2006.

In his address, Aoun affirmed that “only the state” can define its defense strategy and ensure its implementation, a clear reference to Hezbollah, upon whom he implicitly called to join the dialogue table.

Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, will set the tone in a speech scheduled for Monday, Jan. 3, a day after Free Patriotic Movement head Gebran Bassil is expected to make a speech.

“Hezbollah will not be in favor of discussing defense strategy right now. The problem is not this matter itself, but the timing,” a Hezbollah official told L’Orient-Le Jour. He argued that economic and financial recovery is top priority for Lebanon’s citizens, not Hezbollah’s arsenal.

“Issues related to talks with the International Monetary Fund and Banque Du Liban governor Riad Salameh need to be settled before raising the issue of the weapons,” the official said. This could be seen as a hand extended to the president and the Aounist camp, who have been battling for months to oust the BDL governor.

The same source added that it is not the right timing to discuss defense strategy, because the regional and international circumstances are unfavorable to the Shiite party and its Iranian ally, “who are under Israeli and US pressure in connection with the Vienna nuclear talks.”

Aoun – whose presidential term expires in a few months and who is under pressure from both the international community and his Christian base, furious because senior officials close to Hezbollah and the Amal movement are wanted for questioning in the Aug. 4, 2020, Beirut port explosion probe – can no longer maintain his years-long silence. Ostensibly, he has decided to break his silence, particularly since the Shiite bloc have caused the cabinet paralysis, an expression of dissatisfaction with the performance of Tarek Bitar, the judge leading the port blast investigation.

Nevertheless, Bassil, who recently raised the stakes with multiple veiled threats against the Iran-backed party – to the point of reconsidering their 2006 MoU – would have decided to lower his tone somehow after meeting with Wafic Safa, the head of Hezbollah’s coordination committee.The same may be said of Aoun himself, whose Monday speech turned out to be less strongly worded than anticipated.

“That is not the case. It is totally incorrect,” a source close to Baabda said.

The meeting was actually held, a source within the Shiite party said, and a temporary calm has been the watchword.

A source close to Mr. Bassil noted that the two officials met 10 days ago, prior to the Constitutional Council’s decision (regarding FMP’s appeal for the invalidation of recent amendments to the electoral law), but the meeting was in no way connected to the president’s speech.

The agreement has not yet expired

In any case, sources close to Hezbollah stressed that mounting tension is in no one’s interest. Relations need to be worked out free from doubts and media gamesmanship. “The party is quite willing to absorb the content of the president's speech, which was neither aggressive nor reflective of a desire to sever ties,” the above-mentioned official in Nasrallah’s party said.

Since Bassil raised the tone in the face of his Shiite partner, suggesting that he intends to split with the Shiite party, the latter has been sending, through various sources, messages about its desire to smooth relations

The above-mentioned source close to Hezbollah also suggested that Hezbollah’s base, annoyed and offended by the campaign orchestrated against it, is as bothered by the state of relations between the two political parties as the Christian popular base. “We have often told the FMP people that while Hezbollah is able to stand that, its popular base can no longer tolerate the attacks on the party,” the official said.

It is rare to find voices in Hezbollah circles that believe there is a rupture between the two parties. “The agreement has not expired yet. The differences are to be resolved in private, not in public,” a former minister close to the Shiite party said.

Although aware that the agreement, like bilateral relations, are no longer as solid as before, Hezbollah’s official bets on the “moderate” branch within the FPM, which is not ready to cut all ties with its Shiite ally.

Several members of the Aounist movement are still convinced that, a few months ahead of the legislative elections, it is very risky for the Christian party to end its MoU with Hezbollah, which will likely be in its favor in several electoral districts.

“Though several partisans are convinced that this partnership with [Hezbollah] has only harmed the FPM,” a source close to the FMP said, “there are wise members who speak out in favor of calming the situation, at least until the legislative elections are held.”

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle Khouri

After it was subtly targeted by President Michel Aoun’s speech Monday, one should not expect Hezbollah to express an official reaction anytime soon. As usual, the party will take some time to digest the messages it has received and to contemplate its response. For the first time since the start of his term, the president, who sought to make an assessment of the shortcomings of current ...