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Inevitable escalation takes shape in the Middle East

After the deaths of two American soldiers in Jordan and one in Iraq, the prospect of a diplomatic solution between Iran and the United States is receding.

Inevitable escalation takes shape in the Middle East

A huge billboard depicting U.S. President Donald Trump lying in a coffin covers a building in Tehran, Iran, on July 18, 2026. (Credit: Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters)

Any remaining doubts were dispelled by the events that unfolded on Saturday, July 18.One week after Iran and the United States resumed their daily exchanges of fire, two American soldiers were killed in Jordan by an Iranian ballistic missile, the first such deaths since the April 8 cease-fire, while another remains missing. Meanwhile, Tehran announced the suspension of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with Washington on June 17. The following day, another American soldier was killed in northern Iraq.Neither side appears willing to back down, and neither seems to have played its final card in the efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz. The situation makes a further escalation almost inevitable and renders regional diplomatic efforts largely futile, especially as the interpretation of the framework agreement’s terms was...
Any remaining doubts were dispelled by the events that unfolded on Saturday, July 18.One week after Iran and the United States resumed their daily exchanges of fire, two American soldiers were killed in Jordan by an Iranian ballistic missile, the first such deaths since the April 8 cease-fire, while another remains missing. Meanwhile, Tehran announced the suspension of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with Washington on June 17. The following day, another American soldier was killed in northern Iraq.Neither side appears willing to back down, and neither seems to have played its final card in the efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz. The situation makes a further escalation almost inevitable and renders regional diplomatic efforts largely futile, especially as the interpretation of the framework agreement’s terms was...
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