A general view dated March 30, 2005, shows the Iranian nuclear research center in Natanz, 270 km south of Tehran. (Credit: Henghameh Fahimi/AFP)
Israel's bombing if Iran's uranium enrichment facilities, including its biggest, in Natanz, on Friday, has raised concerns about the risk of radioactive pollution spilling out into neighboring towns and cities, and seeping into the environment. L'Orient-Le Jour interviewed Bilal Nsouli, director of the Atomic Energy Center at the Lebanese National Council for Scientific Research (NCSR), who is closely monitoring the situation. According to him, there is no need to worry for the moment. He explains why.
"First of all, it should be known that the Iranians announced on Friday around 11 a.m. (Vienna time) to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that there is no suspicious radioactivity detected at Natanz," he said. "What can be concerning, in the absence of information, is knowing where the uranium stocks are and what has happened to the hundreds of centrifuges located there," he continues.
"We do not know the level of destruction at this site and how deep the facilities are," Nsouli says. However, it should be noted that enriched uranium, if any, is in solid form, and to better understand the risk of radiation in the event of a strike, one should look, according to the expert, to Chernobyl, the worst nuclear catastrophe in history.
On April 26, 1986, at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine, which was then part of the USSR, one of the facility's reactors exploded, releasing massive amounts of radiation, causing major health and environmental consequences for a considerable distance from the plant. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the radiation reached as far as 500 kilometers from the plant.
"In the case of Chernobyl, the releases came from burned fuel," Nsouli says. "They were in gas form, therefore extremely volatile and capable of reaching distant areas." This is markedly different a situation with a stock of enriched uranium which, in its solid form, would release dust that would not so easily spread and would be significantly less harmful, according to Nsouli. Especially since it is probably underground, and the effects of its potential destruction would likely remain localized.
"And even in the case of its dispersion," Nsouli adds, "assuming that the Iranians — with their reports that have so far sought to reassure — are trying to hide the truth as some suspect, the radioactivity detection systems of neighboring countries will alert very quickly." He recalls that at the time of Chernobyl, the Soviets had tried to conceal the severity of the radioactive pollution, but it had been detected by German systems.
Radioactivity detection system in Lebanon
The Atomic Energy Center director pointed out that Lebanon does indeed have an air radioactivity detection system, distributed over 20 army barracks, and that training and maneuvers are regularly conducted by the center in cooperation with the armed forces so has to maintain a level of preparedness.
"What I can say for now is that our early detection system has not detected any suspicious levels of radioactivity in the air," Nsouli says.
He called on people in Lebanon not to give in to any unnecessary panic, which — considering the strains the country already faces — they could do well without. The Natanz facility is 1,500 kilometers away as the crow flies, he assures. "If we account for the wind speed in summer, which is no more than 10 to 20 kilometers per hour, any pollution would take at least four to five days to arrive, and the alarm signal would have been given by other closer countries long before," he says.
What should be done if radioactive pollution were to eventually emerge from the bombed sites and reach neighboring countries? "At that point, we would need to calculate the rate and act accordingly, as the actions to be taken depend greatly on the contamination rate in the air," Nsouli says. However, his maintains the belief that this risk remains "minimal."