Israel has killed more than 300 Hezbollah fighters and destroyed entire villages in southern Lebanon. But, Hassan Nasrallah has not backed down. Israel assassinated Fouad Shukur on July 30 in the heart of the southern suburbs of Beirut, despite the red lines set by the party.
Hezbollah has lost some of its credibility and power of deterrence. Its secretary-general threatened to cross the Rubicon before settling for a symbolic retaliation that highlighted the limits of a party caught in its own trap. Still, Nasrallah did not back down.
Israel went even further. On Tuesday and Wednesday, it blew up thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies, sowing terror across Lebanon, killing nearly 40 people and injuring more than 3,000, including civilians — the vast majority of whom were Hezbollah members. The party received the hardest blow in its history. Thousands of men were wounded, communication systems disabled and an unprecedented psychological toll. Hezbollah has lost much of its prestige this week.
Still, Nasrallah did not back down.
Israel sought to maintain the pressure. On Friday, it once again struck the densely populated southern suburbs, destroying an entire building and killing at least 14 people and injuring dozens. The target? Ibrahim Aqil, head of Hezbollah's elite Radwan unit. At least 10 party commanders were killed alongside him, according to the Israeli army spokesperson.
Israel considers that there are no longer any red lines in Lebanon. Everything is permitted as long as Hezbollah refuses to dissociate its 'support front' from Gaza. This is another (very) hard blow for the party. If it does not retaliate this time, the southern suburbs will become a regular target of Israeli attacks. If it responds in an attempt to restore its deterrent capability, it will mean war. But in any case, Nasrallah will not back down.
Strategic Impasse
Hezbollah's operational capabilities appear to be severely weakened. Its command chain is seriously impaired. Its paranoia is stronger than ever. How do its members communicate now? How do they meet without risking being targeted by another strike? How can they not see spies everywhere? Hezbollah is on the path to losing its gamble.
The support front opened on Oct. 8 did not prevent Israel from reducing Gaza to ashes. Nor did it force Israel to agree to a cease-fire in the Palestinian enclave, where Hamas continues to resist, which would have signaled a strategic victory for the Iranian axis. Hezbollah is losing this war, and Lebanon along with it. But, Nasrallah will not admit it. Nothing will make him give up the possibility of a historic victory. Nothing will make him accept a defeat that would set the party back decades.
Hezbollah has been taking hits since Oct. 8, intensified during the summer. Benjamin Netanyahu can now flex his muscles. After the debacle of Oct. 7, he projects an image of strength. The main threat to Israel's security is particularly weakened. But, strategically, this will lead nowhere except to total war.
Is Israel ready for that? Judging by the ongoing escalation: probably. But the final decision has probably not yet been made. Israel could gradually intensify its operations, betting that Hezbollah will be forced at some point to retreat or escalate. Since it will not retreat, escalation is inevitable.
And then? Israel could destroy all of southern Lebanon and part of Beirut, perhaps invade the territory for several kilometers, and target Hezbollah's depots housing its precision missiles. Militarily, Hezbollah could suffer significant losses.
A large-scale war will be very costly for Lebanon and, to a lesser extent, for Israel. Thousands of missiles will target the northern part of Israel daily, forcing tens or even hundreds of thousands of people to relocate.
How to end this war once it starts? Israel will destroy Lebanon before it destroys Hezbollah. It cannot finish off the group. Nor can it occupy southern Lebanon indefinitely. Nothing guarantees that Hezbollah would not emerge politically strengthened from a new war where it could showcase the full extent of its military capabilities.
By opening a 'support front' in Gaza on Oct. 8, Nasrallah brought Lebanon to the edge of the abyss. But it is Netanyahu who now wants to push us over the edge. Just like in Gaza, the policy of systematic destruction will only fuel hatred and the desire for revenge.