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IN BRIEF

Economic news recap: Here’s what happened last week in Lebanon

We catch you up on the latest economic news.

Economic news recap: Here’s what happened last week in Lebanon

View of the Jounieh coastline. (Credit: Stephanie Bechara)

-Several airlines have canceled or delayed flights in and out of Beirut International Airport as Lebanon and the international community expect a possible retaliation from Israel over a deadly strike that killed 12 children in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan Heights on Saturday evening.

These flight changes are in addition to delays accrued by several scheduled Middle East Airline (MEA) flights up until at least Monday morning.

The majority of arriving flights scheduled between midnight and 6 a.m. on Monday were postponed or canceled, according to updates posted on the airport website. These include flights by Qatar Airways, Pegasus, Ethiopian Airlines, Turkish Airlines and Egyptair. Departing flights of the same airlines were also canceled or postponed.

Lufthansa Group, the flag carrier of Germany, also announced in a statement the suspension of its flights to Beirut until tomorrow, Tuesday.

-The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, showed an annual growth rate of 41.78 percent in Lebanon in June, nearly 10 points lower than the previous month (+51.59 percent), according to the latest numbers published by the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS).

The last time this index showed a value below 50 percent was in April 2020 (+46.55 percent). The index fell below the 100 percent mark for the first time since June 2020 in March. The CPI only measures price changes in Lebanese lira (LL).

This slowdown was expected since the exchange rate between the Lebanese pound and the U.S. dollar still hovers around LL 89,500 per dollar, a stable level for nearly a year.

-Between the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis, the advertising sector saw its revenues slashed from $188 million in 2018 to just $47 million in 2023 – that is a drop of 74 percent across the market (television, outdoor, and online advertising had each recorded only $15 million in revenues, while press and radio suffered the most with only $1 million in revenues each). In contrast, television recorded $85 million in revenues in 2018, while outdoor advertising generated $48 million, the press made $20 million, $10 million for radio and $25 million for online advertising.

-In October 2024, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog, could place Lebanon back on its gray list. It would be another black dot in the country's record and its banks since the start of the crisis in 2019.

In the worst-case scenario, adding Lebanon to the gray list could push all or some foreign correspondent banks still dealing with the country to end their relations with the Lebanese banking sector. They are around 20 at present, compared with more than 40 before 2018, according to our figures.

-More than three months after initiating a class action in the United States against the Central Bank of Lebanon (BDL), its former governor Riad Salameh, several Lebanese banks, and their auditing firms in response to the banking crisis that began in 2019, the plaintiff Karim P. Najjar has been joined by others who, like him, have been illegally denied access to their deposits.

According to the lawsuit filed on July 23 in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey (equivalent to a trial court in this East Coast state), and reviewed by L’Orient-Le Jour, the class action now includes a larger number of plaintiffs and defendants. This expansion is possible due to the nature of class action lawsuits, which allow an individual to file on behalf of others in similar situations and be joined by additional plaintiffs.

“The implications of this action could be severe for the individuals and entities targeted, particularly given the suspicions of fraud, conspiracy, insider trading, and money laundering it involves, provided the court finds jurisdiction, the complaint is deemed admissible, and a favorable judgment is reached,” Karim Daher, a tax lawyer who chaired the Beirut Bar Association’s depositors' defense committee until March, told L’Orient-Le Jour in April.

-Fitch, one of the big three U.S. credit rating agencies along with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, said in a recent press release that it will no longer provide sovereign credit rating for Lebanon, which has been in default on its dollar-denominated debt since 2020. It also affirmed, until further notice, Lebanon’s Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at ‘Restricted Default’ (RD), which it has imposed in 2020.

Fitch justified its decision to remove Lebanon from the list of countries it monitors by pointing out that it “no longer has sufficient information,” in the absence of “national accounts” and “fiscal data” since 2021.

-The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the Tripoli and North Lebanon Chamber of Commerce (CCIAT) this week inaugurated an online platform to support Lebanese exporters in Tripoli, according to a press release published on the UNDP website.

The platform, called Al Ghorfa Export and accessible via a dedicated website, will be managed by the CCIAT. It is "designed to enhance business operations and expand market access amidst Lebanon's challenges, this platform aims to empower Lebanese MSMEs to reach international markets," according to the press release.

-Fuel prices in Lebanon dropped on Friday, while the price of a gas canister remained unchanged after rising last week, according to the latest rates published by the Energy and Water Ministry.

Analysis of the week

In early July, the committee tasked with the partial overhaul of the Money and Credit Code submitted its report to caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati. While the report contained “good proposals,” it also included “ambiguous” or “insufficient” recommendations, and even some deemed “erroneous or aligned with previous deviant practices still in progress,” according to a group of experts who conducted a thorough study on the matter. L’Orient-Le Jour obtained and reviewed the analysis prior to its publication. Read Mounir Younes’ piece:

Read here

Monetary and Credit code reform: Adjustments made, significant gaps remain

-Several airlines have canceled or delayed flights in and out of Beirut International Airport as Lebanon and the international community expect a possible retaliation from Israel over a deadly strike that killed 12 children in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan Heights on Saturday evening.These flight changes are in addition to delays accrued by several scheduled Middle East...