Suddenly, at a time when negotiations for a truce in Gaza are stalling, the southern Lebanon front is ablaze. In the last 48 hours, Hezbollah has launched at least two operations of a new type, whether in terms of the weapons used, the geographical depth or even the clashes they have provoked. The Israelis retaliated with a series of air raids in the Bekaa region, particularly in and around Brital, on Tuesday night.

Speculation that the war between Hezbollah and the Israelis would escalate immediately began to occupy the media, with many analysts predicting that “it's going to be a hot summer.” However, from Hezbollah's point of view, the change in the nature of the attacks it is launching against the Israelis has more to do with the desire to open a strategic page aimed at establishing new rules of deterrence than with the beginnings of a war on a larger scale.

In detail, there was first of all the attack of a new type on the Israeli position known as “Ramia” on the border with Lebanon. In this operation, Hezbollah fighters attacked the position from what is known as “zero distance.” This means that they were able to advance to the enemy position without the Israeli soldiers noticing and without the radars and surveillance system raising the alarm. They also used a new type of weapon for the first time. Hezbollah published a video of the operation which shows that its fighters were almost 100 meters from enemy positions, and the photographer who accompanied them showed that they launched three types of missiles from three different locations.

The party refuses to say anything more about this operation, and above all does not answer the question of whether it is a clue to the ability of its fighters to penetrate the northern Galilee and thus move the fighting into “Israeli territory.” Sources close to the group merely state that the operation is a response to the Israeli Defense Minister's recent tour of the area and his statement that Hezbollah fighters have been removed from the area.

The 'red lines' remain the same

The second attack took place on a military installation dedicated to Israel's surveillance system near the town of Tiberias, more than 35 kilometers from the border with Lebanon. This is the first time since Oct. 8 that Hezbollah has aimed at targets at such a distance from the border, and in this attack, it used drones that the Iron Dome and the Israeli warning system failed to intercept. The Israelis have not revealed the impact of this attack on the military base in question, but, according to Hezbollah, it achieved its objective, which remains limited.

Of course, the targets chosen by Hezbollah remain mainly military. Despite the fundamental change in the nature and location of its attacks, Hezbollah continues to respect the “red lines” set since Oct. 8.

Sources close to Hezbollah base their assertion on this fact: Their aim is not to widen the battlefield with the Israelis, but to prevent them from doing so. According to the same sources, Hezbollah is waging a very delicate battle, sending precise messages to the Israelis that only the military can receive.

So while some Lebanese political parties hostile to the opening of the “Gaza support front” from Lebanon are wondering what purpose this front serves, and whether its opening is really worth the human and material losses engendered by this war that does not speak its name, sources close to Hezbollah counter that it is precisely the opening of this front that is preventing the Israelis from carrying out a larger-scale attack against Lebanon while causing Israel a real internal problem with the displaced people in the North demanding clear answers about their return home.

Similarly, sources close to Hezbollah continue to point out that the attacks carried out from Lebanon are not in vain, since they have largely contributed to depriving the enemy of what Hezbollah calls “its eyes” (in other words, its surveillance system). At the same time, every operation from Lebanon is intended to show that Hezbollah has not revealed all its cards and means, and therefore the Israelis, who are already having a hard time in Gaza, from the north to the south of the enclave, should think carefully before widening the scope of confrontation with Lebanon. From Hezbollah's point of view, then, this is an attempt to impose a balance of deterrence inspired by the model adopted from 2006 until 2023, but with improvements.

This article originally appeared in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.