Hezbollah has maintained its muted stance while discussions about Syrian refugees and migrants in Lebanon have hit headlines in recent weeks.

The topic is broached sparingly within its ranks, with occasional remarks emerging from figures like Lebanon's top Shiite Mufti Ahmad Kabalan, purportedly aligned with the party and serving as its unofficial spokesperson.

Kabalan recently sounded the alarm about a “demographic threat” facing the nation, referring to the Syrian population in Lebanon, which is predominantly Sunni.

This restrained approach may stem from concerns about inciting conflict with refugees and migrant populations. In recent months there have been visible threats and violence against Syrians amidst rising xenophobia among some Lebanese people in Lebanon.

However, critics of Hezbollah reject this rationale, saying that the party refrains from endorsing calls for the return of refugees and migrants due to its allegiance to the Syrian regime.

As of now, the Syrian government has not implemented tangible measures to facilitate the repatriation of its citizens. It is widely understood that Damascus will not take action without concessions — such as normalizing relations, lifting sanctions and securing funding for reconstruction.

In 2017, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stated that after six years of conflict, “Syria has lost its youth and infrastructure, but has gained a healthier and more homogenous society” — implying a populace more aligned with his regime.

However, Assad’s critics allege that this “homogeneity” was achieved through the deaths of nearly half a million Syrians and the displacement of half the country’s population, primarily Sunni, to strengthen the Alawite minority from which the regime hails.

‘A conflict of interest?’

The pertinent question remains: Does Hezbollah benefit from keeping Syrian refugees and migrants in Lebanon?

Hezbollah has made it clear that it advocates for the restoration of relations between Lebanon and Syria, emphasizing that this is the only path toward negotiating a framework for repatriation.

However, critics of the pro-Syrian alliance argue that this stance does not reflect a genuine commitment to resolving the refugee crisis.

Opponents contend that Hezbollah has asserted control over significant territories in Syria, particularly in Qalamoun and Qoussair, and displaced inhabitants in the process, so it may not be inclined to facilitate their return.

Instead, they speculate that Hezbollah may prefer to maintain control over areas previously held by [Syrian] opposition forces, repurposing them into Iranian military strongholds and arms caches under its influence.

“This reflects Tehran’s ambition to reshape the Middle East in its sectarian image,” a Lebanese opposition figure told L’Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue. “The consolidation of Iranian influence in countries like Iraq, Syria and increasingly in Lebanon, exemplifies this agenda.”

Yet, one must consider how accommodating such a significant population of Syrian Sunnis, alongside several hundred thousand Palestinian Sunni refugees, aligns with Hezbollah’s interests.

After contributing to what some perceive as the creation of a “homogenous Syria,” would Hezbollah risk upsetting the demographic balance in Lebanon?

“We are indeed witnessing a strategic alliance between Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, but this does not necessarily imply alignment on the refugee issue,” said Karim Bitar, a political scientist.

He suggests that rather than a double game, there may be a conflict of interests between the two allies.

The rift was evident as early as April when Iran proposed launching an attack on Israel from the Syrian Golan Heights — an option staunchly rejected by Assad, who acquiesced to Israeli threats of retaliation against his regime.

Hezbollah’s stance on Syrian refugees and migrants can be inferred from the remarks of Mufti Kabalan, who recently asserted that the Shiite community would not tolerate any form of integration or settlement of migrants.

More recently, he emphasized that “the issue of displaced persons must be urgently addressed ... The country’s demography, stability, security, economic situation and livelihoods are at stake.”

This position was corroborated by sources close to Hezbollah.

Joumblatt enters the fray

“I can assure you that Hezbollah is more eager for the Syrians to return home than any other Lebanese party,” said a source close to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah. “However, it insists that this process occurs through official channels.”

According to L’Orient-Le Jour sources, Hezbollah has requested that Druze leader Walid Joumblatt present a proposal to the other stakeholders.

This discussion transpired during a meeting on April 25 between Hussein Khalil, political adviser to Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, and Wafic Safa, head of the party’s coordination unit, with Joumblatt.

It’s worth examining why Hezbollah is channeling its proposals through Joumblatt rather than directly engaging with its ally, Assad, to persuade him to reopen the borders in the opposite direction.

“I believe this issue transcends Hezbollah, which finds itself ensnared in its own dilemma,” suggested an opposition source, alluding to the party’s involvement in the Syrian war, a factor contributing to the exodus of many Syrians.

Hezbollah appears convinced that this matter, now garnering unanimous support from Lebanon’s major parties, necessitates engagement with them and the Lebanese state.

According to those close to the group, Hezbollah seems wary of a head-on confrontation with the refugees or the Syrian regime, fearing it could prove counterproductive and incite a cycle of violence.

Moreover, it has other pressing concerns, notably the ongoing hostilities with Israel in the south.

Hezbollah did not respond to L’Orient-Le Jour’s request for comment.

“If it raises its voice, what good will it do? The party knows full well that many of the refugees cannot return because they will be massacred or at least thrown into prison,” said former army officer General Khalil Helou. ‘[Hezbollah] doesn’t want to open Pandora's box and shine a new light on what it did in Syria,” he added, “especially as it was behind their forced departure.”

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Sahar Ghoussoub.