Here we are. We have known for days that this Friday the 13th will be important. Protests in support of the Palestinian cause are being organized in several Arab countries, from Iraq to Yemen, Jordan and Lebanon. These demonstrations could lead to disturbances or even escalation, especially in Lebanon and Iraq. They come at a time when Israel seems ready to launch its offensive on Gaza.
On Friday morning, the Israeli Army ordered « all civilians from Gaza » to evacuate the south and should soon launch the assault aimed at eliminating Hamas. For several days now, Hezbollah has said repeatedly that the entry of the Israeli Army into Gaza is a red line that will push it to intervene. Is it a bluff to deter the Israeli Army from taking action, or is Hezbollah ready for an open war with Israel to save Hamas ?
Two hypotheses are possible.
The first is that Hezbollah underestimated Israel's determination to retaliate for Hamas’s attack on Saturday and now finds itself trapped in its own bluff. In this scenario, the party does not want war, which it knows is too costly, but it also cannot lose face. The party would prefer a limited and controlled escalation with the Israeli state, which also has no interest in having to fight on two fronts at the same time. However, this is risky in the current context where things can quickly deteriorate. The party's behavior in recent years and the silence of Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah align with this hypothesis.
The second hypothesis depends on everything we do not know. Does Saturday's attack fit into a larger strategy aimed at changing the regional balance of power in favor of Iran ? In simpler terms, does Iran want a regional escalation ? Recent behavior might lead us to believe otherwise. But we do not have all the data. If Iran decides that it is time to take action, the Israeli offensive on Gaza becomes a pretext rather than a « game-changer. »
What we know is that the « axis of resistance » has been engaged in a cycle of escalation throughout the region for days. The tour of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian is part of this context. Israelis bombed Damascus Airport yesterday before he could travel there. In the evening, he warned from Beirut that « the continuation of Israel's war crimes will trigger a response from the rest of the Resistance axis. » However, this morning, the minister toned his statement down by saying, « What is important to us is the security of Lebanon and preserving calm in the country. »
At least one of the two statements is misleading, but which one ?