SSNP leader Rabih Banat speaking on 29 May, during a visit to one of the party’s armed positions in southern Lebanon. (Credit: SSNP Twitter account)
The April 6 Saudi-Iran normalization agreement paved the way for a general calm in the Middle East.
Despite this new regional dynamic, sharp political division persists in Lebanon, against a backdrop of presidential deadlock between the opposition, which is close to the Western-aligned Arab states, and the Iran and Syria-aligned March 8 camp.
The parties in the latter camp have recently stepped up their shows of force. From Hezbollah’s full-scale military exercise, to the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) armed parade, to a leaked video showing Amal movement fighters a few days ago, March 8 parties are sharpening their claws. It is as if they seek to divert attention from the difficulties they face at the local level.
Syria’s return?
These parties’ shows of force come at a time when, as many observers believe, Hezbollah has been wrong-footed by the Saudi-Iran agreement. “Hezbollah has realized that the Saudi-Iranian détente is real, and that it has begun to be felt across the region,” political scientist Karim Bitar told L’Orient-Le Jour.
“In this context,” he added, “Hezbollah and its allies feel the need to multiply their shows of force in order to show their adversaries that they are still there.”
With this in mind, Hassan Nasrallah’s party organized a huge military exercise near Mlita on May 20. A few days later, the SSNP announced the resumption of its “armed struggle” in southern Lebanon, inaugurating the militia’s Eagles of the Tornado armed posts.
“Our party is returning to its natural position, that of fighting Israel alongside Hezbollah, at a distance from Palestine,” the Syria-aligned party said in a statement.
This move comes at a time when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad returned to the Arab League during its summit in Jeddah on May 19, which prompted many observers to fear a gradual return of Damascus’ influence to Lebanon.
Is the SSNP’s military revival the first sign of this return? According to researcher Joseph Daher, it's more about an attempt by the SSNP to salvage its credibility, despite the internal rift tearing it apart.
“For some time now, the SSNP has been going through a major rift between the current leadership and the party’s former president, Asaad Hardan,” he said.
This show of force is all the more necessary, given the party’s abysmal showing in the 2022 parliamentary elections, failing to win a single seat.
Some had linked this defeat to Hassan Nasrallah’s desire to weaken Damascus’ allies in Lebanon, so as to prevent the Syrian regime from reestablishing a dominant role at the expense of Hezbollah — the current conductor on the local scene.
“After Syrian troop withdrawals [from Lebanon] in 2005, and even more so after the start of the war in Syria, Hezbollah increased its standing,” in Lebanon, said Joseph Daher.
“Today, it considers its military intervention [in Syria’s civil war as having] saved the regime. Consequently, it does want its relations with Damascus to return to the status quo ante,” he added.
Up against it
In addition to regional dynamics, the March 8 parties also face difficulties on the domestic scene. “These recurrent shows of force are the product of the nervousness of Hezbollah and its allies, who must therefore resort to psychological warfare,” said Bitar.
“We must not forget that Hezbollah made major concessions to Israel in the maritime border demarcation issue.”
Thus, Hezbollah must show its base that it is still in a position of strength and that it is ready to attack ‘the enemy’ along with its allies, who remained silent during the recent confrontation between Islamic Jihad and Israel in Gaza a few weeks ago.
Hassan Nasrallah’s party is also in a difficult political position. Having lost its majority following the 2022 elections, Hezbollah is unable to elect its presidential candidate, Marada leader Sleiman Frangieh, since Frangieh has no Christian backing. Gebran Bassil’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) has refused to support his candidacy, despite its alliance with Hezbollah — which is now called into question.
Jihad Azour, the joint candidate of the opposition and FPM, seems to have broader support, albeit not enough to get him elected.
“Hezbollah, which controls the SSNP like the other March 8 parties, is flexing its muscles because it is cornered politically,” said Charles Jabbour, spokesman for the Lebanese Forces (LF), the largest opposition party.
Since the Oct. 17, 2019 uprising, the agenda of the Iran-backed party has been increasingly called into question, reflected in its symbolic loss [of a majority of seats] in the elections.
Against this backdrop, Hezbollah is keen to remind its opponents that, despite their increased stature in parliament, it remains a key party, particularly since it is the most powerful outside the institutions.
“The March 8 parties want to show that no one in Lebanon can keep them in their place,” FPM official Naji Hayek told L’Orient-Le Jour.
“Meanwhile, they parade freely in their uniforms with their weapons, while retired [army] general Georges Nader — a key figure in the 2019 uprising — was summoned by the military court for wearing his uniform when he was no longer serving in the army.”
This story originally ran in French in L’Orient-Le Jour, translated by Joelle Khoury.