US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf said Wednesday, May 31 that the Biden administration is considering imposing sanctions on Lebanese officials if the country does not elect a new president.
Though the US has previously used sanctions as a means to push different parties toward consensus in the election of the new head of state, Leaf's recent statement has reverberated throughout the country.
The assistant secretary of state criticizes “elected officials who are not doing their job” and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, “who has not called a [presidential] electoral session since January.”
Two senators sent a letter to US President Joe Biden in April denouncing the blocking of presidential elections by “Hezbollah and its allies, such as [Parliament Speaker] Nabih Berri ….”
It is the first time the US administration points a finger at the head of the legislative branch. Meanwhile, Berri’s right-hand man, MP Ali Hassan Khalil, was targeted for sanctions in 2020 in what already appeared to be a warning to the Amal Movement leader.
“Even if Barbara Leaf does not occupy a decisive position within the American administration, the threat of sanctions should be taken seriously,” says Michael Young, editor of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center blog. “However, the Lebanese issue is more of a priority for the two senators than for the administration.”
Berri remains one of the US’s privileged interlocutors within the Lebanese establishment, playing a significant intermediary role in Washington’s communications with Hezbollah.
Will the US administration carry out its threats?
In February, France, Saudi Arabia, US, Qatar, and Egypt met in Paris to discuss the Lebanese presidential issue. They unanimously agreed that, should the deadlock persist beyond July 31 (the end of Banque du Liban (BDL)’s Governor Riad Salameh’s tenure), sanctions against those responsible were possible.
Arab and Western powers seem to seek a timely appointment of a president in order to facilitate the selection of Salameh’s successor, with the aim of appointing a capable figure who can effectively address the ongoing financial and monetary crisis.
“During the meeting in Paris, the [participants] agreed on several points, including their refusal to see Riad Salameh reappointed as BDL head,” says political analyst Karim Bitar.
It is difficult to envision the reappointment of the central bank head, who is the subject of two international arrest warrants.
Since the current caretaker government cannot appoint a new governor, Salameh’s first deputy, Wassim Mansour could assume the role on an interim basis.
This prospect raises concerns among Arab and Western diplomatic offices, as Mansouri’s close ties to Amal and Hezbollah suggest that his policies would likely align with those of his current superior.
“The idea of using sanctions is currently under discussion among the French, the Americans, the Saudis, and above all the Qataris,” an Arab diplomatic source told L’Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
A message for Paris?
After seven months of a presidential vacuum following the conclusion of former President Michel Aoun's term, there is no sign of a way out of the crisis.
Opposition parties and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) have reportedly reached an agreement to endorse the candidacy of Jihad Azour, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the region. This alliance could potentially secure Azour around 60 votes in an upcoming parliamentary session.
The decision rests with Berri, however, and if he convenes a session Hezbollah and Amal face the possibility of either losing or having to obstruct the election of a nominee other than their preferred candidate, Sleiman Frangieh of the Marada Movement.
Leaf’s statement could therefore be interpreted as pressure on Berri to convene a session as soon as possible, five months after the last one was held in January.
Berri responded with a statement Thursday, in which he absolved himself of any responsibility for the deadlock.
“The doors of Parliament are not and will not be closed to a session to elect a president if at least two serious candidates are announced,” the statement read, asserting that “any suggestion to the contrary and any threat will serve no purpose, particularly with the legislature head.”
“Those who support Jihad Azour should officially endorse him. This is when Berri will convene a meeting,” a close associate of the speaker told L’Orient-Le Jour.
On Tuesday, Berri received army chief Joseph Aoun, whose candidacy is experiencing a resurgence with support from Doha.
During the meeting, the two men reportedly touched on the issue of military promotions.
While Berri was among the first to oppose Aoun’s nomination, arguing that this would require amending the constitution, the speaker now appears to be leaning toward accepting his candidacy.
Reportedly more active than Washington in the Lebanese presidential issue, Paris is said to be backing Frangieh's candidacy.
Despite Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai’s visit to the French capital Tuesday, the Élysée Palace appears to be waiting for an official position from the opposition parties and the FPM before altering its stance.
“Barbara Leaf’s recent remarks are also aimed at the French, as the US is not satisfied with Paris’ handling of the issue,” the aforementioned diplomatic source said.
It is reported that France’s partners have given Paris until mid-June to make a breakthrough on the issue by supporting the Frangieh option, failing which another choice will have to be made.
This story originally ran in French in L’Orient-Le Jour, translated by Sahar Ghoussoub.