Sleiman Frangieh gives a press conference at Parliament. (Credit: Photo taken from the Parliament's Flickr account)
Everyone is waiting to hear from him. While backing for Sleiman Frangieh’s candidacy for the presidency has been officially announced by Hezbollah and Amal — with both Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah expressing their support for the Zgharta zaim — he continues to keep a low profile.
Certainly, his presidential ambitions are no secret to anyone, his name has been circulating among the presidential candidates for many months — years even. But it now appears he is waiting for the right moment to break his silence, particularly since his path to Baabda is fraught with difficulties, including the absence of a Saudi green light.
Between Tehran and Riyadh
Following the two Shiite leaders’ recent statements, the official announcement of Frangieh’s candidacy seemed imminent. Press conference, television interview, radio appearance … We expected last weekend to be busy for the former interior minister. In the end, however, none of this happened, as the long-awaited announcement was postponed — perhaps indefinitely.
Officially, those close to this leader from the north believe that the delay is linked to logistical considerations. “He is working on his program, he still has to finalize it,” said a source close to the Marada leader, more than five months after the start of the presidential election period.
According to some media outlets, however, it is only a matter of a few days before the announcement comes.
The same is true for Frangieh’s key supporters. “He is finalizing the preparations before announcing his candidacy,” a source close to Berri said.
This justification, however, did not convince all observers, particularly since Frangieh’s decision to wait a little longer before announcing that he is running for president comes after Tehran and Riyadh announced on March 10 that the countries would resume diplomatic relations. This announcement of diplomatic reconciliation reshuffled the cards in Lebanon, especially for Frangieh, who is supported by the Iran-aligned camp but eagerly seeks a Saudi green light.
However, Saudi Arabia appears to be signaling its rejection of a pro-Hezbollah candidate acceding to Baabda, with both Saudi ambassador to Beirut Waleed Bukhari and the Saudi Okaz daily, which is close to the royal court, sending negative signals to Frangieh.
In a meeting with Berri on Monday, Bukhari reiterated his position, saying that the kingdom refuses the election of a figure affiliated with a particular camp and whose election would be seen as a victory for that camp against the other political actors.
The right moment
A Saudi green light is particularly important for Frangieh. This is not only because the Saudi return to the local scene — after its withdrawal during former President Michel Aoun’s term of office — would allow Lebanon to unlock important funds that could help the country exit its current economic crisis, but also because it would rid Frangieh of many obstacles at the local level, allowing him to win the precious support of a dozen Sunni MPs.
The latter have been reluctant to endorse his candidacy without a green light from their community’s historical sponsor in Lebanon. Without them, Frangieh will probably not be able to obtain the 65 votes necessary to be elected in a second-round vote in parliament.
“Mr. Frangieh is waiting for the right moment to officially announce that he is running for president. The issue is not only logistical,” a source close to the Zgharta leader said. “He is carefully monitoring the changes at the local and regional levels and does not want to rush his announcement to avoid his candidacy being doomed by the lack of consensus.”
Frangieh does not want to suffer the same fate as his Zgharta rival, the reformist MP and opposition candidate Michel Moawad, whose presidential ambitions were nipped in the bud by a Hezbollah veto.
The Iran-aligned party and its allies, which consider Moawad a defiant candidate particularly because of his highly critical stance on Hezbollah’s military arsenal, have precipitated a loss of quorum following the first round vote at the 11 electoral sessions held in Parliament to date, preventing his election in the second round. Presidential candidates need a two-thirds majority in Parliament to be elected in the first round of voting, but only a simple majority is required to achieve election in all subsequent rounds.
It must be borne in mind, however, that the weapon of scuppering quorum could also be used by the opposition against Frangieh, especially if Saudi Arabia continues to refuse to endorse his candidacy.
At a Paris-held meeting on Lebanon in February, which brought together representatives of France, the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, Riyadh insisted that the group of five call for the election of a president who does not represent a defiance to any of the political parties. This stipulation would complicate Frangieh’s election.
The Zgharta leader — who met on Tuesday with Egypt’s ambassador to Lebanon Yasser Alaoui — is doubtless well aware of the task that lies ahead of him in convincing Riyadh. Berri has already apparently undertaken efforts to do so, endeavoring to convince Bukhari of the benefits of Frangieh’s election.
According to a diplomatic source who spoke to L’Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity, France has been advocating for a middle ground and has proposed to the Saudis an effective swap between the presidency, which would go to Frangieh, and the premiership, which would then go to a candidate that the kingdom agrees on. Riyadh rejected this formula, the source said.
At the same time, Hezbollah could capitalize on the resumption of diplomatic ties between Tehran and Riyadh to promote this candidacy, especially since the Saudis are also taking steps to build closer ties with Bashar al-Assad’s Syria, a historical supporter and personal friend of the Frangieh family. Are there glimmers of hope for the zaim of Zgharta?
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.