Hezbollah proclaims support for two presidential candidates: Frangieh and ‘a compromise’

After about seven months of procrastination, Hezbollah has finally shown its hand.

“The natural candidate we support for the presidency and who meets our criteria is Sleiman Frangieh,” said party leader Hassan Nasrallah during a televised speech on Monday in his first explicit endorsement of the Marada Movement leader.

“Let’s take it from here and talk.”

This was probably the key phrase of his speech, a significant part of which was dedicated to internal issues, including the presidential election.

Nasrallah unsurprisingly followed the path laid out a few days earlier by his ally, Parliament Speaker and Amal Movement leader Nabih Berri.

During a Thursday interview with the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar — which is widely seen as pro-Hezbollah — Berri explicitly endorsed Frangieh’s candidacy. This endorsement was accompanied by a direct attack on the pro-opposition candidate, MP Michel Moawad, marking a new chapter of political intransigence.

“We are all for the election of a new head of state,” said Nasrallah on Monday evening, emphasizing the “national interest” of this pivotal moment.

However, this logic appears to contradict the party’s previous efforts to elect former president Michel Aoun between 2014 and 2016. Today, Hezbollah sees Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Gebran Bassil as a far cry from his father-in-law and from Frangieh.

In fact, Bassil has been unwilling to foster internal understanding within the March 8 camp and has taken actions to weaken Frangieh, his Christian rival.

Meanwhile, the Marada Movement leader has historically demonstrated more openness to cooperation; he reluctantly agreed to withdraw his candidacy in favor of Aoun back in 2016. Frangieh also respected Hezbollah’s decision to maintain political paralysis for two years and helped ensure the two-thirds quorum in Parliament that ultimately enabled Aoun’s election.

Incidentally, this is how Nasrallah justified his Hezbollah MPs’ casting of blank ballots during the 11 parliamentary presidential electoral sessions held since September.

“We give time for internal debate,” Nasrallah stated. By not writing a name on the ballot, he said his party had not made a binding commitment.

Nasrallah also emphasized that his support of Frangieh did not signify a reneging of the Mar Mikhael Agreement. Nonetheless, he seemed intent on containing Bassil’s anger, who appears to be backed into a corner.

Quorum, a double-edged sword

The parliamentary quorum required to elect Frangieh is a double-edged sword, given that the 2016 Maarab Agreement between the Lebanese Forces (LF) and the FPM is unlikely to be repeated with the Marada Movement.

LF leader Samir Geagea has been clear in his opposition to the election Hezbollah’s choice of candidate.

Additionally, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri — who had brokered the presidential compromise with Michel Aoun and lost the support of his Saudi allies in the process — has voluntarily withdrawn from the political arena, much to the dismay of both Berri and Nasrallah.

Now, Hezbollah, the Amal Movement and a few scattered allies are leading the battle for Frangieh. But it is unlikely that their campaign will be sufficient to achieve the two-thirds quorum (86 MPs) required to convene an electoral session in Parliament.

“The constitution is the constitution,” Nasrallah said.

However, Article 49 of the constitution does not explicitly specify a quorum for the session.

As a general principle of law, this means the ordinary quorum rule should apply. In this case, Article 34 of the Constitution— which states that Parliament can convene with a simple majority (half plus one), or 65 MPs — ought to be implemented.

However, the March 8 camp’s blocking tactic is now being turned against its own parties.

“In 2014-2016, it is true, we were torpedoing the quorum,” said Nasrallah. Now they say [the Lebanese Forces and other opposition parties] will torpedo [the vote] if the candidate is from the moumana [resistance axis] or close to Hezbollah.”

“It is your natural right,” he acknowledged, addressing the opposition parties. “You can boycott the quorum, and we can too. But no quorum means a situation that can last for years.”

Nasrallah then proposed his solution to the political impasse:

“Let everyone announce their candidate, and let’s all go to Parliament,” he said. “If there is a quorum, it will pass, otherwise, we will go to dialogue without conditions. This is the only solution.”

Is Frangieh the ‘Moawad’ of Hezbollah?

Nasrallah’s willingness to engage in dialogue indicates that he is open to compromise.

In his speech, Nasrallah also called for the presidential election to be given its "domestic scope" — meaning it should be tackled on a local level — but also left the door open to foreign powers that could provide support or mediate the deadlock.

Nasrallah repeatedly emphasized that Frangieh is not “Hezbollah’s candidate,” but rather “the candidate supported by Hezbollah.”

This nuance is important for two reasons.

First, Hezbollah has revised its calculations after Michel Aoun’s six-year term and no longer seems willing to bear the consequences of another election failure.

Nasrallah stated his desire to spare the next president from the kinds of attacks Aoun endured throughout his term for being seen as “Hezbollah’s candidate.”

However, the main reason for Nasrallah’s emphasis on this nuance is to keep some room for maneuvering, especially in the negotiations that will follow.

Despite his call to keep the election of a president a strictly Lebanese matter — denying any interference from his allies, namely Syria and Iran — Nasrallah has left the door open to discussions with other foreign powers.

“We will not accept a president imposed from abroad, just as we do not accept a veto from abroad on the candidate we support or on the candidate supported by others,” the Hezbollah leader stated.

“Some countries say they veto this candidate or that. But we have not heard them say it explicitly. We have heard it from the mouths of the parties that call themselves sovereignists,” Nasrallah continued.

This was a clear dig at Saudi Arabia, which no longer hides its opposition to Frangieh’s candidacy.

“We accept help to bring the points of view closer. There is no problem in that,” he said. “Even help from the countries that are involved in the [Lebanese] issue and are not among our friends.”

Saudi ambassador to Lebanon, Walid Boukhari, is expected on Tuesday at Berri’s residence at Ain al-Tineh.

Will the speaker launch a new round of negotiations aimed at finding a presidential compromise?   

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Sahar Ghoussoub.