An Israeli tank disabled near the border with Gaza on Oct. 7, 2023. (Credit: AFP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was reportedly warned by Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) during a lengthy phone call in late September that Hamas was preparing an “earthquake” — a large-scale attack — just days before the group’s deadly Oct. 7, 2023 assault on Israel, which killed more than 1,200 people. Israel subsequently launched a military campaign in Gaza that has killed tens of thousands of people.
Haaretz and Yedioth Ahronoth made the revelations in an extensive investigation into what they described as the Israeli authorities’ “abandonment” of hostages. The media outlets reported that Netanyahu took no action to address the threat following the Emirati warning, as well as another warning from Cairo.
The revelations were published by Israeli media and will also appear in an investigative book on the subject, titled "Hostages: 843 Days of Abandonment," amid campaigning for Israel’s upcoming legislative elections.
Via a Fatah mediator and a Palestinian from Gaza in Abu Dhabi
According to journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval, Hamas military chief Yahya Sinwar had issued a warning that he was preparing a “big surprise,” using the word “zelzal,” Arabic for earthquake.
He reportedly made the statement after negotiations between Israel, Hamas and Fatah over the return of the bodies of Israeli soldiers and the release of hostages held in Gaza before 2023 broke down following delays by Israeli authorities.
“When these negotiations collapsed in early September 2023, Sinwar completely disappeared from the Shin Bet’s radar,” Haaretz reported.
Sinwar then reportedly contacted a Fatah mediator identified by the pseudonym “Coal Eyes,” telling him, after taking a deep breath and in what was described as a chilling voice: “Pass on to the Israelis the message that I am preparing an immense surprise. A terrifying operation, something extraordinary, an earthquake. Pass on this message word for word to the Israelis.”
The Fatah figure, reportedly “alarmed by the conversation,” passed the message to a “close friend,” a Palestinian from Gaza who had moved to Abu Dhabi and worked as an adviser to the Emirati president.
After relaying the message to MBZ, who asked him to confirm that Sinwar was indeed planning to launch a war, Emirati authorities alerted Israeli intelligence. The information reached Israeli officials on Sept. 15 and was passed on to Netanyahu.
Security meetings were subsequently held, during which participants considered why Sinwar might be making such threats, including whether he was seeking to pressure Israel over an agreement or test the Israeli army’s level of preparedness.
One theory was that Hamas might try to seize Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who had been abducted by pro-Iranian Iraqi militias, in order to gain leverage in a future prisoner exchange. The possibility of carrying out a “warning” strike on Gaza was also discussed, but no decision was taken.
Netanyahu’s calm
With no apparent reaction from Tel Aviv, MBZ asked to speak personally with Netanyahu, which reportedly took place at the end of September.
During a 45-minute call conducted through the usual protocol — via a secure phone brought to the Israeli prime minister’s office by a representative of the Emirati Embassy — the Emirati leader reportedly conveyed Sinwar’s intentions “explicitly.” He warned of a “bloodbath” that could destabilize the entire region and undermine the Abraham Accords.
Since Oct. 7, 2023, Iran’s regional proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, have opened several “support” fronts for Gaza. More than 70,000 people have been killed in Israel’s offensive in the devastated enclave, while most of Hamas’ military leadership has been killed by the Israeli army.
Despite the Emirati warnings, Netanyahu reportedly “reacted with relative calm,” believing that Hamas was planning to operate in the West Bank, where Israeli forces were prepared to respond to any scenario. The prime minister also reportedly failed to inform senior security officials of MBZ’s direct warning.
Netanyahu reportedly reacted similarly to a call around the same time from Egyptian intelligence chief Gen. Abbas Kamel, who warned him of an imminent “unusual event, a terrifying operation” that Hamas was preparing to launch.
According to details of the conversation reported by Yedioth Ahronoth, Netanyahu told Kamel: “In Gaza, we know what is happening, we control the situation. Our problem is the West Bank, and that is also where we are redirecting our forces.”
'Pure lies'
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office described the reports as “pure lies” following the publication of the book, categorically denying that the prime minister had any contact with the Emirati president on the matter at the time.
Israeli officials quoted in the reports, including Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, also denied ever being aware of Emirati warnings.
Netanyahu’s political opponents have nevertheless seized on the revelations. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said that “the report is true, Netanyahu knew about Sinwar’s intentions 10 days beforehand.” He accused his rival of bearing “personal and direct responsibility” for the failure, which he described as “criminal negligence.”
Another rival, Gadi Eisenkot, said the report showed that Netanyahu had repeatedly ignored warning signs coming from Gaza. “He is unfit to govern,” Eisenkot said.
Oct. 7 remains at the center of the election debate, with the various candidates seeking to assign blame and responsibility for failures and negligence to their rivals.
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