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ANALYSIS

Economic and financial reforms: How the war with Israel is reshuffling cards in Lebanon

While the direct and indirect costs of the war are expected to further weaken Lebanon’s public finances, negotiations with the IMF are back at square one amid growing international pressure to disarm Hezbollah.

Economic and financial reforms: How the war with Israel is reshuffling cards in Lebanon

Israeli strike near the Mar Mikhael church district in Chiyah, in the southern suburbs of Beirut, on March 7, 2026. (Credit: Mohammad Yassine/L'Orient-Le Jour)

The ongoing war in Lebanon, triggered by Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on Israel, comes at a critical moment for its already strained economy. Beyond the violence itself, the financial architecture that authorities had painstakingly designed to revive the Lebanese economy, including multi-year budget planning, banking sector restructuring and management of external debt, is now under pressure.For several months, authorities had been working to implement a medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF) to redirect public finances and reopen negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), before moving on to the more decisive phase of banking reform. This was meant to serve as the cornerstone of a crisis exit strategy, ongoing since 2019, and one of the most severe financial collapses in Lebanon’s modern history.Uncertainty and budget...
The ongoing war in Lebanon, triggered by Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on Israel, comes at a critical moment for its already strained economy. Beyond the violence itself, the financial architecture that authorities had painstakingly designed to revive the Lebanese economy, including multi-year budget planning, banking sector restructuring and management of external debt, is now under pressure.For several months, authorities had been working to implement a medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF) to redirect public finances and reopen negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), before moving on to the more decisive phase of banking reform. This was meant to serve as the cornerstone of a crisis exit strategy, ongoing since 2019, and one of the most severe financial collapses in Lebanon’s modern history.Uncertainty and budget...
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