JP Morgan expects gold to reach $6,300 by end of year

The American bank J.P. Morgan said it expects the price of gold to reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by sustained demand from central banks around the world, according to Reuters.

This projection comes as the precious metal’s price has declined since Friday, after hitting a peak of nearly $5,600 last Thursday.

By midday Monday, the price hovered around $4,700, down more than 15 percent from last week's record.

Some context

Gold, silver prices plunge as investors soothed by Trump Fed pick

The drop occurred after markets were reassured by U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to appoint Kevin Warsh, a former member of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors who favors rate cuts, as Fed chair, and as tensions between Washington and Tehran, at least for the moment, eased.

But some analysts believe this drop will be temporary, like those at J.P. Morgan who “remain firmly convinced of the medium-term rise in gold, supported by a clear, structural and ongoing trend toward diversification, which still has room for growth, in a context where the outperformance of real assets over paper assets remains well established.”

J.P. Morgan anticipates that central banks will purchase 800 tons of gold in 2026, a decline compared to 2025 but still a very high level.

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The World Gold Council recently estimated that central banks would buy 850 tons of gold in 2026 versus 863 tons in 2025, a slowdown linked to the price surge that has been spectacular in the past two years, having more than doubled in that time.

In contrast, for silver, whose price has hovered around $80 an ounce since late December, the factors for continued growth have become harder to identify and quantify, making the position more cautious, J.P. Morgan said, as reported by Reuters.

“We continue to see a higher floor for silver on average [around $75 to $80 per ounce] for now compared to our previous forecasts, as even after surpassing its catching-up with gold, silver should not completely forfeit its gains,” the bank added.

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In late January, an ounce of silver came close to the $120 mark before retreating to about $80.

In October, J.P. Morgan predicted that the price of gold would end the year above $5,000 per ounce, a threshold that was ultimately only reached in the second week of January.