Despite 'shocks,' IMF reveals growth in the Middle East accelerated in 2025

Growth accelerated in Middle Eastern and North African countries this year and is expected to surpass 3 percent despite global uncertainty and regional conflicts, according to an IMF report released Tuesday.

"Despite the shocks we have experienced, with tariff measures, geopolitical tensions, conflicts and oil price volatility, growth is stronger than last year, not just in a group of countries, but across the region," highlighted the IMF's director for the Middle East and Central Asia, Jihad Azour, in an interview with AFP.

The institution presented its latest regional report Tuesday in Dubai, forecasting 3.3 percent growth this year in the MENA zone and 3.7 percent in 2026, which is 0.7 and 0.3 percentage points higher, respectively, than its previous forecasts from May. The region's GDP had increased by 2.1 percent in 2024.

Potential for reconstruction in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza

The Gulf countries notably benefited from increased oil production, which offset falling prices, while others benefited from a rebound in tourism, industry or agriculture, explained Azour, whose name was regularly mentioned as a presidential candidate during Lebanon's vacancy (2022-2025). "The region was able to withstand the major geopolitical shocks of the past two years, including countries neighboring the conflict zone," such as Jordan and Egypt, Azour emphasized when discussing the war between Israel and Hamas that devastated the Gaza Strip.

Read more

Comment l’unité affichée par les représentants libanais face au FMI s’est disloquée à Washington

The ongoing cease-fire in Gaza "is a significant and welcome step forward," but it is still too early to say whether it could affect the region's economic outlook. "The impact will depend on how this stability could improve the region's overall risk profile, and on the potential for reconstruction in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and later in the West Bank." "But this is not part of the baseline scenario at this stage and we must wait to see how this develops," he added.

For now, the priority is to assess the damage in Gaza and the needs for emergency aid and reconstruction, with the help of the U.N. and the World Bank, Azour noted. According to him, the financing needs are also "immense" in other conflict-affected countries, such as Yemen and Sudan, due to the drop in international aid.

Malgré les « chocs », la croissance s’est accélérée au Moyen-Orient en 2025, révèle le FMI