Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon waving flags and holding photos of their late leader Hassan Nasrallah as well as Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during a rally in front of the Iranian embassy in the southern suburbs of Beirut, to celebrate a cease-fire between Israel and Iran, on June 25, 2025. (Credit: Haitham Moussaoui/AFP)
Lebanon adopted a stance of neutrality in the recent direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, one that is constrained, shaped as much by the balance of power as by Hezbollah’s political calculations. Confronted with unprecedented military and diplomatic pressure, the party has been forced to adapt to a new strategic reality, especially since Tehran was able to handle the confrontation on its own, and Hezbollah’s deterrent capability against Israel had reached its limits.The Israel-Iran cease-fire, reached under U.S. pressure, does not signal a de-escalation in Lebanon. On the contrary, it opens an uncertain chapter in which Hezbollah is trying to survive without abandoning its ambitions. Managing the post-war phase may prove more perilous than the war itself. While the cease-fire with Iran allows Tel Aviv to refocus its attention on...
Lebanon adopted a stance of neutrality in the recent direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, one that is constrained, shaped as much by the balance of power as by Hezbollah’s political calculations. Confronted with unprecedented military and diplomatic pressure, the party has been forced to adapt to a new strategic reality, especially since Tehran was able to handle the confrontation on its own, and Hezbollah’s deterrent capability against Israel had reached its limits.The Israel-Iran cease-fire, reached under U.S. pressure, does not signal a de-escalation in Lebanon. On the contrary, it opens an uncertain chapter in which Hezbollah is trying to survive without abandoning its ambitions. Managing the post-war phase may prove more perilous than the war itself. While the cease-fire with Iran allows Tel Aviv to refocus its...
