Over the years, it had become clear: Lebanon had no chance of aspiring to peace, stability and prosperity as long as Hezbollah remained so dominant.
The same conclusion could be drawn on a regional scale. Nothing positive could be expected as long as Iran, along with its allies, was not just the dominant force but the one with the greatest capacity for harm in the Middle East. The regime had nothing to offer its own population or those of the region except a cocktail of propaganda and repression that could, admittedly, be extremely clever and even seductive at times.
This being said, what conclusions should be drawn? Should we take satisfaction in the fact that Israel’s attack on Thursday — the latest stage in a war declared decades ago — might lead to the fall of the Iranian regime?
Should we turn a blind eye to the fact that it flagrantly violates international law and is being carried out by an actor that is, at the same time, pursuing what is at the very least an ethnic cleansing campaign in Gaza, continuing its settlement enterprise in the West Bank and intervening militarily with complete impunity in Syria and Lebanon?
Should legitimate hostility toward the Iranian regime lead us to ignore the lessons of history — particularly that of the U.S. intervention in Iraq — which have repeatedly shown that the disproportionate and illegitimate use of force serves only to deepen the chaos its proponents claim to be fighting?
That would be a miscalculation. A moral and political failure.
First, because international law cannot be disregarded when it proves inconvenient, only to be loudly defended at all other times. The use of force can, at times, be unavoidable when facing an actor who understands no other language. But in this case, both the timing and the motives behind the Israeli attack are highly questionable, even if Iran had accelerated its uranium enrichment.
Second, because one cannot condemn a power for having destabilized the region for decades while at the same time applauding another for defeating it by setting the region ablaze. Iran is a rogue state, but Israel has little, if anything, to envy in that regard, except that it treats its own population, excluding Palestinians, with far greater consideration.
Finally, because Israel, too, has nothing to offer the region except the rule of chaos and might. Its war, driven by a desire to avenge Oct. 7 and to reshape the face of the Middle East, is a race toward the abyss. It does not have the means to destroy Iran’s nuclear program on its own and is seeking to drag the United States into a conflict that would set the entire region ablaze.
What is its ultimate goal? To bomb the Iranian regime until it surrenders? To eliminate all of its representatives until one of them falls to their knees? And if the days and weeks go by and that scenario does not come to pass — if Tehran refuses to abandon its nuclear ambitions and the United States declines to intervene — will Benjamin Netanyahu put an end to a war that, like the one in Gaza, has laid bare the limits of his supposed omnipotence?
Even assuming Israel achieves its aims and the regime eventually falls, what comes next? Who will oversee the transition of power in a devastated country of 90 million people, 75 times the size of Israel and three times the size of Iraq? How can one imagine that this would lead to anything other than widespread chaos that would spill far beyond Iran’s borders?
The end of the Iranian era is a blessing for the Middle East.
But let us harbor no illusions: the beginning of the Israeli era is nothing short of a curse. Unlike Iran, Israel does have the means of unchecked power. Unlike Iran, Israel enjoys unconditional support from the West. And unlike Iran, Israel can carry out its ambition of erasing a people and reshaping the face of the region.
Over the past two decades, Iran was undoubtedly the region’s main problem. Israel has not only challenged it for that distinction, but it has far surpassed it.
It is unquestionably the strongest power, and its technological prowess impresses the world. But no domination — no matter how firmly established — can rest indefinitely on such imbalance and injustice. It may take years or decades, but if nothing changes, Israel, like Iran, will ultimately be consumed by its own hubris.
In the meantime, however, we may all end up paying the price for its madness — far beyond the borders of the Middle East.
This article was originally published in French. It was translated by Sahar Ghoussoub.