What does Israel want in Syria? At this point, two reasons seem to be possible.
The first is to negotiate a peace agreement with the new regime, which has opened the door to that possibility.
The second is to take part, in the name of a so-called “alliance of minorities,” in the fragmentation of its neighbor with the aim of rendering Syria harmless and turning the region into a patchwork of ethnic and sectarian microstates, among which Israel would be by far the most powerful.
Has it already made its decision? Are the hundreds of strikes carried out since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the nibbling away at part of its neighbor’s territory, the bellicose rhetoric and threats of invasion aimed at reaching a peace deal from a position of strength?
In other words, to dissuade Damascus from asserting any sovereignty over the annexed Golan? That is one possibility. But it seems, at the very least, shaky: The more Israel intervenes, the harder it will be for Syria’s interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa to normalize relations with it.
Everything thus suggests that Israel has opted for the second option. Why? Because it dreads, like the plague, the entrenchment of an Islamist government, especially one backed by Turkey, at its border? Or because it wants to seize this momentum to reshape the region?
At this stage, both interpretations are defensible, but the second gains more weight with each passing day.
In any case, the agreement between Damascus and the Kurds disrupted Israel’s plans. But the tensions between the Druze and the new regime offer it another opportunity to interfere in the Syrian game and sow division. Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich makes no secret of it.
“Israel will continue the fight until Syria is dismantled,” he said.
Who will stop it from carrying out its design? On the face of it, no one. Israel does what it wants, where it wants, as it has proven for at least the past 18 months. The most radical voices within it first utter monstrosities. Then those monstrosities are carried out, with a more acceptable veneer, in Gaza and the West Bank.
One could argue that Syria is a different case. That, whatever one says, the world’s major powers do not care about the fate of Palestine, which is not the case with Syria. That the Israeli plan runs counter to the wishes of Turkey, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Europe and even the United States. That those who continue to turn a blind eye to the atrocities committed in Gaza because of the Oct. 7 massacres cannot do the same in Syria. Here, no alternate narrative can emerge: Israel attacks, and Syria does not even bother to defend itself.
Will that be enough to push the aforementioned powers to oppose this policy of destabilization this time? Will it open their eyes to the fact that Israel does not want peace, as it claims, but an endless war that feeds its internal evolution, security obsession and hegemonic temptation?
The U.S. played a major role in brokering the agreement between Damascus and the Kurds, despite the continued enforcement of the Caesar Act [enacted by the U.S. in 2020 to impose sanctions on the Syrian government and any entities supporting it, aiming to pressure Damascus into a political transition].
Saudi Arabia appears very serious in its willingness to provide financial assistance to Syria. Europe is also moving in that direction. And Turkey, the sponsor of the new regime, has no intention of allowing Israel to upend its plans. Turkey is the most capable, or the only regional power capable of standing up to Israel.
For all these reasons, Tel Aviv will have less leeway in Syria than in Gaza. If it manages to detach the Druze from Damascus, however, the equation could change.
That is why a policy of wait and see is no longer acceptable. It is time for all those who do not wish to see this scenario unfold to wake up and contribute to strengthening Sharaa’s authority while also demanding tangible results from the former jihadist president in terms of respect for minorities.
For whatever one may think of his intentions and transformation, Sharaa paradoxically represents the only hope of preventing Syria from imploding. Netanyahu, on the other hand, is its greatest gravedigger.
This article was translated from L'Orient-Le Jour.
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