
A radiant weather - but out of season - for most of January in Lebanon. (Credit: Suzanne Baaklini/L'Orient-Le Jour)
The spring like and very dry weather this January is making it difficult to catch up on the precipitation deficit Lebanon and the entire eastern Mediterranean are experiencing this winter. This would likely be insufficient to replenish the groundwater and surface water courses, foretelling an almost certain water shortage this summer.
Jocelyne Abou Fares, head of the forecasting division at Meteo-Liban, explains to L'Orient-Le Jour the reasons behind this unusually mild January and shares the forecasts for the coming days.
What are the weather forecasts for the coming days, and when can we expect rain and snow?
The next depression [drop in temperature], coming from the southwest of Turkey, is expected to arrive on Wednesday evening in Lebanon. Rains will begin in the South and then move to the rest of the country. Thursday is expected to be a rainy and stormy day, lasting until Friday, when the weather should gradually improve, with a return to sunshine expected on Saturday. There might be another depression next week, but it remains to be confirmed.
However, one should not expect intense cold, as temperatures will not drop drastically: on Thursday, they will vary between 11 and 19 degrees on the coast, and on Friday between 10 and 18 degrees. Snow is expected to fall at 1,700 or 1,800 meters altitude on Thursday and could fall as low as 1,600 meters on Friday.
But, in general, the rainfall is largely insufficient, and it will probably be impossible to make up for the precipitation deficit this season even if the rains extend into March or April. The comparison with the previous year is significant: on the Beirut coast, 249.5 millimeters of rain have fallen since September compared to 712.5 for the same period last year, with a 30-year average of 430 mm. In Tripoli, 243.4 mm fell compared to 676.2 last year, and in Bekaa 148.6 mm compared to 413.2 mm the last season.
Why is there this unusually mild weather in January?
The scientific reason for this lack of cold and rain lies in the atmospheric high pressure, which is currently between 1,020 and 1,017 hectopascals. To have rain, this pressure should not exceed 1,015 hectopascals. This is the case throughout the eastern Mediterranean up to Turkey, unlike the western basin which experiences different weather.
This clearly shows the influence of climate change, in this tendency towards temperatures too high for the season, in all regions of the country and throughout the eastern Mediterranean in general. The planet's climate has already exceeded by 2024 the 1.5 degrees (more than before the industrial revolution) according to some studies.
On a more punctual level, Lebanon is in the area influenced by a transitional phase between the two climatic phenomena of El Niño and La Niña [opposing Pacific currents that affect global meteorology]. The arrival of La Niña in our regions often means a decrease in precipitation even if temperatures were reviewed downwards. One generally does not know how long one of these phases lasts.
What are the consequences of insufficient rainfall on water supply, snowfall and agriculture?
In the absence of sufficient rains and snowfalls, the groundwater tables of Lebanon, on which we mainly depend in times of low water, will not be replenished by the melting snow. Similarly, the existing dams will not be able to fill up since they also depend on it. We therefore risk running out of water this summer, especially since these natural causes are compounded by fairly chaotic governance of the sector. The concerned ministries should therefore plan for a rationalization of the use of existing resources if we do not want to run out. For example, the use of surface waters (rivers and watercourses) which today mainly flow into the sea could be optimized.
The consequences will obviously be severe for the agricultural sector, which needs water for irrigation and is currently consuming it in this context of lack of precipitation. Furthermore, due to this springlike weather and temperatures too high for the season, fruit trees tend to bloom too early. Any frost would be disastrous for the crops. Farmers need to take precautions to cover the crops as needed, in anticipation of a later cold wave.