Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri meeting with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Beirut, Nov. 28, 2024. (Credit: Lebanese Parliament/Ali Fawwaz)
The situation was already complex, but the rapid developments in Syria and the fall of the regime have complicated it further.
Based on the recent positions of the Lebanese Forces (LF) and the Kataeb Party, it is clear that certain Lebanese political actors view themselves as victorious and may therefore seek to leverage this newfound status in the upcoming presidential election.
Hezbollah, which has not officially commented on the Syrian regime’s fall, does not want the two issues to be linked.
In this respect, the party recalled that its secretary-general, Naim Qassem, had clearly mandated Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to handle the presidential election issue, while accepting the result this would lead to. Berri therefore bears the heavy responsibility of organizing the electoral session.
According to sources close to the Amal-Hezbollah tandem, Berri, who negotiated the cease-fire agreement on behalf of Lebanon, believes that the presidential election should be held without delay to quickly revive state institutions, accelerate the reconstruction process and speed up financial recovery.
According to the same sources, Berri had agreed with U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, during the conclusion of the cease-fire agreement, to hold the presidential election early in the new year. This should be followed by the rapid formation of a government in order to make the most of the momentum generated by the end of the war.
The same sources claim that consensual names have even been mentioned. In other words, they would be candidates who do not pose a challenge to either party, so as to ensure that the presidential term gets off to a good start.
However, this information has not remained a secret, and the official candidate of the Amal-Hezbollah tandem, Marada leader Sleiman Frangieh, has reportedly become aware of it and openly voiced his dissatisfaction.
Berri tried to reassure him, clarifying in several press statements that Frangieh remains the tandem’s favorite candidate.
But apparently, these statements didn't convince the Marada leader, who reportedly discussed the matter with Massad Boulos, the new Middle East adviser to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
Other Lebanese officials are also said to have spoken with Boulos about the presidential election. The main idea was that on Oct. 31, 2015, Michel Aoun was elected a few days before the U.S. presidential election and before Donald Trump — the newly elected president at the time — took office in the White House.
In hindsight, we can even say that Aoun's entire term was marked by the fact that he arrived in Baabda without taking into account the American presidency, which had transitioned from Democrat to Republican, as is the case again today.
According to this theory, a repeat of this experience should be avoided. It would be preferable to wait until the American president-elect takes office and his administration is in place before proceeding with the Lebanese presidential election.
It was against this backdrop that Boulos, in an interview with the French magazine Le Point, said that “the Lebanese can wait another two or three months to do things properly.”
Some immediately interpreted Boulos’ statement as evidence of his desire to urge the Lebanese to wait until the new American president is in office before electing their own, while others preferred to view it as a sign of his intent to play a role in the Lebanese election.
Berri responded by inviting Hochstein to attend the Lebanese parliament's election session, to which the latter replied that he would do his best to attend.
According to Berri’s sources, this invitation was a way for him to show that his approach is supported by the U.S. administration — old and new, since it was on behalf of both that Hochstein led the negotiations for the cease-fire in Lebanon — and therefore, that the whole theory about ignoring the new U.S. administration is irrelevant.
This means that, in principle, the meeting scheduled for Jan. 9 has been maintained and, in Berri's view, should result in the election of a president.
However, since the fall of the Syrian regime, new developments have emerged that could lead to the meeting being postponed and to the electoral process being disrupted.
Indeed, the latest statements by Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea suggest that he may run for president, thus shattering the current efforts to find a candidate acceptable to all parties.
For Amal and Hezbollah, the decision to present a candidate in the wake of the Syrian regime's fall reflects the party’s desire to reinforce what it sees as its victory, while portraying the opposing side as having been defeated.
This is not in line with the current approach and can only delay the presidential election... until after Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
This article was translated from L'Orient-Le Jour.
