A U.N. General Assembly meeting on Ukraine, April 7, 2022. (Credit: AFP archive photo)
At 82 years old, I've witnessed countless upheavals, enough to become accustomed to history's cyclical nature. But recent events have shaken me and frightened me profoundly. The bedrock principles of international law, forged in the aftermath of World War II, are being flagrantly eroded. The prohibition against territorial acquisition by force, the imperative to protect civilians in conflict, the limits on self-defense and the U.N. Security Council's mandate to safeguard global peace — all are unraveling, with a chilling disregard for the consequences.
Double standards
In Ukraine and Gaza, occupation has become a weapon with which to resolve disputes, with civilians tragically serving as cannon fodder. The right to self-defense is perversely distorted to justify acts of retaliation and revenge — in Gaza, bordering on genocide. Simultaneously, the U.S. and Russia routinely exploit their veto power within the U.N. Security Council, rendering it impotent and incapable of demanding a cease-fire in either conflict. Amid this geopolitical maelstrom, extrajudicial killings, once universally condemned, are now shamefully lauded as victories.
This collapse mirrors the swift transformation of the multilateral security system into a multipolar order dominated by three superpowers, each prioritizing its interests and expanding its sphere of influence. This leaves the rest of the world facing escalating insecurity. In today's global landscape, the prevailing principle appears to be: power grants impunity.
The erosion of international rules and norms is exacerbated by blatant double standards. The West's unwavering support for Israel's actions in Gaza and Lebanon, perpetually justified by the refrain "Israel has the right to defend itself," starkly contrasts with the severe economic sanctions levied against Russia. While Russia initiated the war in Ukraine, mirroring Hamas' actions in Gaza, Israel's numerous and egregious violations of international law have effectively rendered it the aggressor.
This double standard resonates deeply within developing nations, where a prevailing belief persists: major democracies' commitment to human rights ends at their borders. Consequently, a profound sense of injustice and hypocrisy exacerbates the longstanding mistrust between the Global North and South.
Existential threats
It is alarming that escalating geopolitical tensions coincide with humanity confronting three existential threats demanding close international cooperation: climate change, the nuclear arms race, and the rise of artificial intelligence.
The climate crisis has escalated into a full-blown environmental disaster, with storms, floods, droughts, and wildfires increasing in frequency and severity. Without drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, global warming is projected to exceed the 2°C threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement and reach 3°C by the century's end. However, the international community remains divided on the actions and funding required to prevent catastrophe. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who withdrew from the Paris Agreement during his first term, is likely to do so again, undermining progress toward effective climate action.
Efforts to mitigate the nuclear threat have regressed into a frenzied arms race. Contrary to the belief of Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev that "a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought," some nuclear-armed states are now openly showcasing their stockpiles. Russia, for instance, has repeatedly threatened to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Compounding these dangers, the New START Treaty – the last agreement regulating the arsenals of the world's two largest nuclear powers – is set to expire in early 2026.
Like nuclear energy, addressing the risks posed by AI requires global oversight and collaboration. However, in the current climate of confrontation and hostility, meaningful cooperation between the United States, China and Russia appears highly unlikely.
Escalating inequality, both within and between nations, fuels global instability. Economic disparities, compounded by growing public distrust of elites, have propelled the recent surge in populism. This trend is particularly alarming as history demonstrates that unchecked inequality fosters fertile ground for authoritarian and fascist leaders.
A new mindset is urgently needed. Absent an effective and inclusive security framework, the global arms race will escalate, increasing the likelihood of nuclear war. Isolationism and trade wars, stifling economic growth and supplanting the rule of law with the rule of force, offer no solutions. Instead, governments must recognize that the only path forward lies in cooperation and compromise.
Acknowledging the considerable benefits of globalization, despite its flaws, is crucial. Confronted by today's monumental challenges, we can either strive for universal freedom and security or witness global descent into chaos. To those dismissing this as idealistic, here's an ironclad reality: without a renewed commitment to freedom, equality, human dignity and solidarity, we face the very real prospect of collective ruin.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024.
Mohamed Elbaradei is Director General Emeritus of the International Atomic Energy Agency, former Vice President of Egypt and Nobel Peace Prize laureate.
