Axios reports details of new Gaza cease-fire formula

According to the American news site Axios, CIA Director Bill Burns discussed a new formula for a Gaza cease-fire and hostage deal during a meeting Sunday with his Israeli and Qatari counterparts. The formula proposes a 28-day pause in fighting, with Hamas releasing about eight hostages — eight women of any age or men over 50 — and Israel releasing dozens of Palestinian prisoners, according to three Israeli officials cited by the outlet.

The plan falls short of Hamas's main demand that any deal include an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and an end to the war.

Bill Burns is expected to travel to Cairo later this week to discuss the matter with Egypt's new intelligence chief, Hassan Rachad, a source familiar with the matter also said.

Axios said that a breakthrough is unlikely before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5 and that both Israel and Hamas will likely adjust their positions based on the outcome. The site also notes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that he would only accept a partial deal, not an end to the war. The two positions are irreconcilable. “Israel accepts a temporary pause, but Hamas wants a pause that would open a process leading to irreversible Israeli steps. If neither side softens its position, there will be no deal,” a senior Israeli official told Axios.

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Egyptian proposal

Axios further reports that Burns met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani and Mossad Director David Barnea on Sunday. Hours before the talks began, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi publicly confirmed that Egypt had proposed a partial deal that included a two-day cease-fire and the release of four hostages. Burns, al-Thani, and Barnea had already been developing the idea of ​​a partial deal and discussed ways to expand on the Egyptian idea during their meeting on Sunday, according to Israeli officials.

The Israeli prime minister's office said in a statement that the two sides discussed "a new unified framework that integrates previous proposals and also takes into account major issues and recent developments in the region."

U.S. officials hoped that Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, one of Israel’s main war aims, would make Tel Aviv more willing to end the war, Axios notes. Israeli officials, for their part, hoped it would increase the chances that Hamas would agree to a smaller deal — though they remain skeptical.

The Gaza war that was triggered by Hamas' unprecedented offensive on Oct. 7, 2023, has since escalated into a regional conflict. In the besieged Palestinian enclave, more than 43,000 Palestinians have died, according to official Hamas reports. Of the 251 people kidnapped during the Hamas attack, 97 remain hostages in Gaza, 34 of whom have been declared dead by the Israeli army.