The leader of the Lebanese Forces (LF), Samir Geagea, surrounded by several opposition figures during the meeting held in Meerab on October 12, 2024. (Photo via the LF website)
On Saturday, Lebanese Forces Leader Samir Geagea opened a new phase in his political battle against Hezbollah. Geagea, who perceives himself as the spearhead of the opposition, did not only break the silence he had voluntarily kept since the Israeli escalation in Lebanon nearly a month ago, but also raised the tone against it.
He reiterated his call for the implementation of Resolution 1701 (2006), which provides for the withdrawal of Hezbollah from areas south of the Litani River, and most notably Resolution 1559 (2004) which provides for “the disarmament of Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias.”
Geagea is playing the card that irritates Amal and Hezbollah the most, who don’t want to hear about Resolution 1559. He is doing so in the wake of the hits Hezbollah has suffered in recent weeks as part of its ongoing war with Israel. Although, it tried to regain strength by targeting an Israeli military base south of Haifa on Sunday evening, killing four soldiers and wounding dozens.
Nevertheless, Geagea’s stance gives the impression that he is trying to take advantage of Hezbollah’s weakening to impose new equations for the post-war period. On the other hand, his biggest rival, Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) Leader Gebran Bassil, opted for a discourse that would not be provocative for Hezbollah’s popular base, and threw barbs at Geagea as well.
“It’s not the right time to talk politics,” said Geagea a few hours after the Israeli detonation of pagers used by Hezbollah’s fighters on Sept. 17, which killed hundreds and wounded thousands.
“But we cannot stand idly by before a war in full swing,” LF spokesman Charles Jabbour told L’Orient-Le Jour, explaining the LF decision to convene a conference in Maarab. The conference, dubbed “In defense of Lebanon,” was held on Saturday and attended by representatives of the opposition and figures hostile to Hezbollah.
“After taking into account the human and humanitarian circumstances (of Hezbollah and its fighters) in the previous phase, it is time to put an end to the tragedies that are besetting the Lebanese,” said Geagea at the opening of the meeting. In so doing, he gave the first sign pointing to his intention to, once again, raise the bar in the face of Hezbollah.
Is it possible for Hezbollah to discuss its arsenal before the guns fall silent? No, they said in political circles. Opposition circles, especially the LF, seem well aware of that.
This is probably why the participants of the Maarab meeting did not set a date to kick-start the project. Resolution “1559 should be implemented as soon as possible. The timing and mechanisms are a matter of detail. But what matters to us is that the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons stops being a taboo” said Jabbour.
“It’s exactly the ongoing war that has given new impetus to our demand (regarding Resolution 1559) because it’s high time to prevent a party that is executing an Iranian agenda from dragging the country into wars that it has nothing to do with,” said an MP on condition of anonymity. This position is vehemently rejected by those who favor Hezbollah.
Opposition MP Michel Moawad, told MTV channel on Sunday, “Advocating the application of [Resolution] 1559 should not be interpreted as a plan for a civil war.”
The same goes for the Kataeb. Kataeb Leader Sami Gemayel echoed this view, calling for the implementation of Resolution 1559 and the opening of a debate on Hezbollah’s weapons after the end of the war.
‘It’s not our problem’
This being said, the opposition unanimously supports the main idea of the Maarab statement. Yet, the flaws that married Geagea’s approach outweighed the strong political message he and his allies wanted to send to Hezbollah.
Rebuking Geagea for what they consider an attempt to position himself as the absolute opposition, key opposition figures did not attend the conference in person, delegating MPs or party deputy-heads. “We weren’t going to participate personally in an event that resembled a press conference by Geagea”, said a key opposition figure. To maintain “the opposition’s unity” against Hezbollah, no one boycotted the event.
“What’s important for us is the political message. We do not care much about the form,” said Jabbour, in a bid to downplay the dispute.
Nevertheless, LF MP Sethrida Geagea stated on the sidelines of the conference what the LF spokesperson has not said. “Some need to understand that in the 2022 parliamentary elections, the LF got 220,000 votes. This makes it the strongest party. It’s not our problem if they don’t agree with this reality,” she told MTV.
Bassil’s tit-for-tat response
In any case, the Maarab conference pushed Bassil to criticize Geagea, without naming him. “Some want to delay the presidential election, hoping that Israel will monopolize the Lebanese decision and impose a president on the Lebanese,” said Bassil in a speech commemorating Oct. 13, 1990, when the Syrian army stormed the presidential palace, forcing then-head of the transitional military cabinet Michel Aoun into exile.
“We remind those betting on a new (Israeli) occupation that history will not repeat itself. And if it does, remember how big the loss was,” said Bassil, hinting at the election of Bachir Gemayel as president in the wake of the 1982 Israeli invasion. Gemayel was assassinated in Achrafieh three weeks after his election.
Bassil, however, reiterated his hostile stance to Hezbollah’s involvement in the military conflict. He buttered up to Hezbollah’s popular base, saying “we understand and welcome the displaced, whatever their party affiliation,” he said.
In any case, Geagea and Bassil agree on the need to elect a president as soon as possible. While Geagea advocates a candidate “who would commit to implementing [resolutions] 1701 and 1559, without implying any victory for any political camp”, Bassil said from Ain-al-Tineh on Monday that contacts are underway to elect a figure who will not challenge anyone.
