Esmail Ghaani. (Credit: AFP)
He was last seen in public at Hezbollah’s offices in Tehran, two days after Israel killed the Lebanese militia leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in Beirut’s southern suburb on Sept. 27. Since then, there has been no trace of General Esmail Ghaani, 67, commander of the Quds Force, the elite branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), responsible for external operations with Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance.”
Israeli media reports claimed that Ghaani was wounded, or even killed, on Oct. 3 in the Israeli strike that targeted Hashem Safieddine, Nasrallah’s prospective successor. Ghaani’s absence was also noticeable when Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, led the prayer commemorating the former Hezbollah leader.
While Iranian officials have yet to react to this speculation, only the pro-regime Mehr News Agency has denied the reports, stressing that the commander is in good health. Two Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran and Hezbollah had lost all contact with Ghaani since the strike against Safieddine, with one of the sources noting that Ghaani was not with the latter at the time.
Last week, after Nasrallah’s assassination, Ghaani had traveled to Beirut to meet with senior Hezbollah officials and help the group recover from the wave of Israeli attacks that stripped it of its command, according to the New York Times, quoting three Iranian officials. He was also due to attend Nasrallah’s funeral ceremony in Tehran.
Iranian ‘mole’?
The Islamic Republic’s silence on Ghaani’s state of health is nevertheless causing concern among the regime’s rank-and-file members. On Saturday, the pro-government Tabnak news site urged the IRGC, saying, “The public opinion is awaiting news that our general is alive and well,” it said.
“If General Ghaani is alive and well, the best way to clarify and assure us that he is well is to publish a short video of him,” said Tabnak.
“The ambiguity is either a prudence effort to keep Ghaani safe while he is in the field, or meant to buy the regime time. Admitting he’s in Lebanon or Syria would only put a target on him. Alternatively, if they acknowledge he’s dead, Iran would be compelled to retaliate,” Afshon Ostovar, associate professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in California, wrote on X on Sunday. This comes at a time when Iran has been trying to avoid a regional conflagration for the past year to ensure the survival of its regime.
But in recent days, the lack of information in this regard fueled rumors on social media that Ghaani is an Iranian “mole” who has informed Israeli intelligence services and enabled the assassination of Hezbollah leaders, including Nasrallah.
A divisive figure
The general had succeeded Qassem Soleimani, assassinated in an American drone strike in Iraq on Jan. 3, 2020. Discreet, and considered far less charismatic than his predecessor, Ghaani was described by the supreme leader as “one of the most decorated IRGC commanders.”
Having joined the Quds Force in 1993, he was appointed by Soleimani as his deputy in 1997, given his military successes during the Iran-Iraq war. Under his leadership, Ghaani’s role was mainly focused on managing the Quds Force’s internal affairs, while Soleimani handled the external affairs and appeared to be very close to Iran-affiliated groups in the region.
According to an analysis by the Washington Institute in May, Ghaani failed to maintain this same bond, showing himself to be “cold and formal” towards militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. His distrustful, even paranoid, attitude towards his own security did not help his relations with Teheran’s proxies.
“Qaani only meets proxy leaderships within a certain framework and in a very formal atmosphere, which has caused the relations between him and the groups affiliated with Iran in the region to cool down,” wrote the Washington Institute. It noted his divisive character.
Isolated, Ghaani was somewhat less so with regard to Hezbollah, whose leaders are all members of the force he commands. Hezbollah’s “leadership has supported Qaani, tried to strengthen his position, and made his relations with Palestinian groups stronger than before,” added the analysis, which reportedly enabled him to play a central role in planning the Oct. 7 attacks with Hamas. This operation reportedly generated discontent among some members of the Quds Force who blamed the general for having approved the operation, by bypassing the leadership council.
