In Tehran, a woman protests in Palestine Square on Sept.28, 2024, against Israel and the United States following confirmation of the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by the Israeli army. (Credit: Atta Kenaré/AFP)
Following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by Israel in Friday night’s strike on the group's headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut, divisions have emerged within the Iranian regime on how to respond, reports journalist Farnaz Fassihi in The New York Times (NYT). While conservatives "advocate for a strong response, moderates led by the new Iranian president, Massoud Pezeshkian, are calling for restraint."
These divisions became evident during an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council convened by Ayatollah Khamenei when it became clear that Hassan Nasrallah was likely dead. " Conservatives, including Saeed Jalili, an influential former presidential candidate, argued that Iran should quickly restore deterrence through a strike against Israel before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu brings war to Tehran," according to officials familiar with the discussions during the meeting, the NYT writes.
Moderate voices, including that of the president, emphasized that since Netanyahu has crossed all red lines, "if Iran were to launch attacks against Israel, it could face severe retaliation against its own critical infrastructure, a prospect the country cannot afford," the newspaper continues.
With the ongoing situation, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is in a "vulnerable position," according to the NYT. Four Iranian officials, including two members of the Revolutionary Guards familiar with developments in Iran, stated that the Ayatollah "has been deeply shaken by the death of his friend." However, they noted that he has opted for a "calm and pragmatic posture."
Following the announcement of Nasrallah's death, the Iranian supreme leader called on Muslims to "support the Lebanese people and the proud Hezbollah with all the means at their disposal and to help them face the malevolent regime [of Israel]." He further declared, "The fate of this region will be determined by the forces of resistance, with Hezbollah at the forefront," according to state media.
Thus, it is Hezbollah, rather than Iran, that will lead the response to this assassination. "Iran would play a supportive role," the NYT notes.
General Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Revolutionary Guards, also stated, the American newspaper recalls, that "Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Palestinian militants" would be the ones to strike at Israel.
An Incredibly Hard Blow
Iran's immediate priority, according to two members of the Revolutionary Guards, including a strategist who participated in planning meetings over the past two days, is "to help Hezbollah recover, appoint a successor to Mr. Nasrallah, establish a new command structure, and rebuild a secure communication network." Only then could Hezbollah plan its response against Israel, they added, according to the NYT.
The assassination of Nasrallah is "an incredibly hard blow, and if we are realistic, we have no clear path to recover from this loss," said Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former Iranian vice president, in an interview from Tehran on Saturday. "We will not go to war; that is not on the agenda. But Iran will not withdraw its support for militant groups in the region, nor will it de-escalate tensions with the West," he added.
Signaling that things could be complicated for Ali Khamenei, state television, run by affiliates of Saaed Jalili, called for Iran to strike Israel, openly defying the cautious line advocated by the supreme leader. "There is no difference between Tehran, Baghdad and Beirut," stated the state television presenter. "Netanyahu understands only one language: that of ballistic missiles and drones," he continued.
Thus, the regime faces a complicated situation as Iran has been grappling with "a cascade of challenges," the NYT recalls, ranging from public discontent over government corruption to poor economic management, the repression of protests against the regime and Israel's infiltration into Iranian military and political ranks.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.