Buildings in ruins after the Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs this Friday. (Credit: AFP)
An hour before, from the U.N. podium, he celebrated his recent successes with unapologetic arrogance and determination. It was clear that Benjamin Netanyahu had no intention of accepting the Franco-American truce proposal, which he did not even bother to mention.
Did he know at that moment that his air force was going to carry out a strike, unprecedented since 2006, on the southern suburbs of Beirut, targeting Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and plunging an entire country into terrible uncertainty?
Nothing will be the same from now on. By bombing the southern suburbs with such intensity, reducing six buildings to ashes and potentially causing hundreds of deaths, Israel has chosen a total war with Hezbollah. By targeting its secretary-general, whose fate is still unknown, it demonstrates that it has no limits in its desire to crush the pro-Iranian formation. The latter was in a position of restraint despite the numerous slaps it endured over the past week.
However, this stance appears impossible to maintain, especially if Hassan Nasrallah is dead after this series of strikes. Israel perhaps calculates that such a severe blow will lead Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsor to stop this war, regardless of what is happening in Gaza, and to accept a cease-fire agreement that would be largely unfavorable to them. In short: hit very hard to make the enemy capitulate. In the same vein, Israel carried out strikes throughout the night on the southern suburbs, instilling a sense of terror and panic across the entire capital, and giving the impression of being unwilling to offer its adversary any respite.
Hezbollah and Iran have never faced such a situation and their reaction might surprise us. Moreover, we know almost nothing about the party's operational capabilities after a devastating week where Israel has shown how well it had prepared for this war for almost two decades.
Does the party have the means to engage in total war? Who gives the orders if the entire command has been decapitated? And Iran, which fears confrontation with the United States more than anything, will it now take that risk to avoid losing its most valuable card in the Middle East? The unknowns are still numerous at this time.
But it seems very difficult to imagine a scenario in which Hezbollah does not respond forcefully to this attack. Otherwise, the entire Iranian axis would be exposed: there would be nothing left of its deterrence capability and consequently its credibility in the region. A strong response from Hezbollah, using hundreds or even thousands of high-precision missiles, would nevertheless trigger an even stronger retaliation from Israel, which would then treat the southern suburbs as a second Gaza.
Hezbollah has never been so cornered: it is either humiliation or total war against an adversary much stronger than itself. While the southern suburbs were pounded by the Israeli army last night, the party remained silent.
Very major repercussions
The fact that the party has given no indication of Hassan Nasrallah's health a few hours after the strike is a worrying sign. If he has indeed been assassinated, it would be a thunderbolt unmatched in the region in recent decades. It would be an even more significant event than the deaths of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani or former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.
The disappearance of Hassan Nasrallah would have very significant repercussions not only in Lebanon but throughout the region. Even if the party's secretary-general is replaced, and even if, ultimately, Ali Khamenei is the ultimate decision-maker, no one has the charisma and reach of the Hezbollah leader within the self-proclaimed "Axis of Resistance." The latter is considered a living god by his supporters who will demand vengeance if he has indeed been assassinated.
The period that is opening is extremely worrying. We are no longer on the edge of the abyss. We are plunged into it, without yet knowing the depth and, consequently, the impact's power at the moment of the fall.
