Responders put out a fire in the area of Lod, near Tel Aviv, in central Israel on September 15, 2024. (Credit: Menahem Kahana/AFP)
BEIRUT — Houthi rebels launched a long-range missile that fell near Tel Aviv on Sunday, marking the first time the Yemen-based militia has targeted central Israel with such a weapon.
The missile, reportedly fired from around 2,000 kilometers away, even farther away than Iran's April attack was thought to have been, was aimed at a military position in Jaffa, near Tel Aviv. In July, the Houthis, who control most of Yemen, including its capital, hit an apartment building in Tel Aviv in a drone attack, killing one man.
According to an Israeli army official, Sunday's missile was intercepted over Israeli airspace, but rather than being completely destroyed, the missile "exploded" in the air, scattering debris and causing a fire to break out near Ben Gurion Airport. No injuries resulted from the strike itself, though nine people were injured while seeking shelter during the alarm, according to the army.
However, Houthi media reports say Israel’s defense system failed to intercept the missile altogether.
While the Houthis spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group launched an advanced "new hypersonic missile," the Israeli army denied that claim and said it was a regular ballistic projectile.
Fabian Hinz, research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), answers L'Orient Today's questions about this unprecedented attack.
What is the difference between a regular ballistic missile and a hypersonic missile and was the Houthi missile in fact "hypersonic?"
All ballistic missiles achieve hypersonic speeds at some point during their flight. However, the term "hypersonic" often implies a missile that is faster than others, which is misleading. What distinguishes hypersonic missiles is their ability to maneuver. In contrast, a regular ballistic missile follows a predictable trajectory, much like throwing a stone.
Hypersonic missiles can change course within the atmosphere at high speeds to evade defenses. The Israelis reported detecting a regular ballistic trajectory on their radar, but we lack independent confirmation of either claim. It is likely that the missile was a standard ballistic type.
The Houthis occasionally refer to their weapons as hypersonic systems, even when they don't meet Western definitions, despite the fact that all ballistic missiles can reach hypersonic speeds at some point during their flight.
How did it get past US and British defense systems in the Red Sea? How come Israel's air defense systems failed to completely destroy it?
Regarding defensive systems in the Red Sea, a missile would likely be in space at about 100 kilometers altitude. Many interceptor systems, like those on British ships, can only engage targets as they descend, not while in space. The U.S. has one system capable of intercepting in space, but it’s unclear why this wasn't utilized. The Israelis possess both atmospheric and space intercept systems, so the failure to completely destroy it before impact could be due to a mistake or a technical issue — such things can happen.
Israel has two primary defense systems: Arrow 2, which intercepts missiles within the atmosphere, and Arrow 3, capable of intercepting them in space at significant ranges. Intercepting in space offers a longer time window, while intercepting during descent is technically challenging due to the high speed of the missile, which can exceed several times the speed of sound.
Another possibility of what might have happened is that the missile disintegrated upon re-entering the atmosphere. As missiles encounter extreme heat and vibrations, they can break apart, creating multiple fragments with unpredictable trajectories, complicating interception. Alternatively, the Houthis may have developed a more advanced system designed to evade missile defenses, but this remains uncertain. The Houthis have not provided launch footage, and existing videos appear unrelated. For full confirmation, we need to identify the system used and see evidence like launch videos or debris from Israel.
Was the missile targeting a specific location in Israel, or was it just a message?
The target was probably specific, but the question remains: what type of missile did they use? Some of these missiles lack accuracy. For instance, the missile showcased in the 2023 parade [the Toofan, a long-range missile with a claimed range of 1,950 kilometers, presented at a military parade in Sanaa] can reach Israel but is not precision-guided, meaning it can deviate by hundreds of meters, if not over a kilometer.
Precision-guided missiles become increasingly challenging to employ over longer ranges; while the Houthis can strike accurately within 200 kilometers, achieving the same over 2,000 kilometers requires more complex systems.