
Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike on Zibqin in southern Lebanon on Aug. 25, 2024. (Credit: Kawnat Haju/AFP)
The retaliation has begun. More than three weeks after the assassination of Fouad Shukur, a Hezbollah military leader, in the southern suburbs of Beirut on July 30, the party announced the first phase of its response on Sunday morning. In a statement, the pro-Iranian group said it had "launched an attack using a large number of drones" and missiles on Israeli territory. Shortly before, the Israeli army reported carrying out preemptive strikes in Lebanon after detecting Hezbollah's preparations for "large-scale attacks" against Israel, where a state of emergency has been declared.
What happened
On Sunday morning, Hezbollah announced in a statement that it had fired "more than 320 Katyusha rockets at enemy sites." The statement listed 11 Israeli positions and bases targeted by these attacks. Although all the sites are near the border, they are located deeper than those typically targeted by the group. According to Hezbollah, the purpose of this barrage of attacks was to pave the way for a drone assault on Israel's "strategic positions." The statement claimed that the drones successfully hit their targets, without providing further details.
Illustration by Guilhem Dorandeu/L'Orient-Le Jour
Earlier, Tel Aviv had announced it carried out a preemptive strike, suggesting that Hezbollah's attack could have been more significant. According to the Israeli army, more than 100 fighter jets participated in this operation. In a press statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that "thousands of rockets" were destroyed in this series of bombings. Citing an Israeli military source, Axios journalist Barak Ravid reported that Hezbollah's rockets hit 40 launch platforms in Israel and that while most were in northern Israel, some of the targeted sites were in central Israel. However, Hezbollah declared its operation a "success" and announced that the first phase of the retaliation was complete. A separate statement denied the "Israeli claims" of preemptive action. On the Israeli side, the extent of the damage remains unclear. Haaretz reported only that a house was damaged in the town of Marot, in northern Israel. No casualties have been reported so far.
In what context
The Hezbollah attack came more than three weeks after the assassination of Fouad Shukur. While the party’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, had immediately announced that retaliation to this provocation was "inevitable," the delay in this vengeance — partly due to a desire not to derail cease-fire negotiations in Cairo for Gaza — had cast doubt on the party’s credibility. It is unclear whether the Americans were informed of this preventive strike, but Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Benjamin Netanyahu this morning, affirming his support. Notably, in the past week, Israel has significantly intensified its operations in Lebanon, targeting deeper areas and killing about twenty fighters and leaders of the party militia.
The retaliation comes at a time when talks in Cairo appear to be at an impasse, with Israel presenting maximalist demands, including a military presence in the South and Center of the enclave. However, Iran seems to want still to give diplomacy a chance. It is thus delaying its retaliation for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader, in a highly secured area in Tehran, just a day after Shukur's killing.
Potential Consequences
At this point, despite its impressive nature, there is no indication that the first phase of the retaliation — which did not target civilian sites or public infrastructure — has caused significant damage in Israel. This is especially true since Hezbollah did not deploy heavy artillery to avenge the assassination of its military leader, instead using Katyusha missiles, which are imprecise and cause minimal damage. The damage could have been more significant — enough to create a deterrent with Israel but not enough to trigger a large-scale war — if Israel had not conducted its preventive strike. In this context, the Israelis might settle for the "military failure" inflicted on Hezbollah rather than launching a violent retaliation that could escalate the conflict in Lebanon into a total war.
Signals in this direction have been sent from both sides: Hezbollah, in a statement, announced the "end for today" of this special military operation, while Netanyahu, in his statement, affirmed that Israel "will attack those who attack it," positioning himself defensively.
Regarding the negotiations in Cairo, it is unclear what impact this attack might have. On one hand, the "Resistance Axis" has shown that it will not remain passive indefinitely. On the other hand, the attack itself seems far from having changed the balance of power on the ground, either because Israel has thwarted Hezbollah's plans with a preventive strike or because, from the party’s perspective, the priority is de-escalation.
This article originally appeared in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.