The al-Amin mosque near the Maronite Church of St. George in downtown Beirut in 2022. (Credit: AFP archives)
This survey came amid heightened tension between Hezbollah and the predominantly Christian opposition, which accused the party of involvement in the Israel-Hamas war and of blocking the election of a president, a post reserved for a Maronite Christian.
“In politics, there are no coincidences. Someone wants us to understand that we are a voiceless minority,” wrote one social media user on X.
Journalist Rami Naïm, known for his anti-Hezbollah stance, echoed this sentiment: “Hezbollah is now talking numbers. Based on false data as usual, Al-Akhbar tells us that Christians must leave. This is proof that Hezbollah is seeking internal compensation for its defeat against Israel.”
Even Druze politician Wiam Wahhab, once close to Hezbollah but now distanced since the war began, criticized the article. “We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: Christians in Lebanon are not just a statistic but a civilizational and cultural value for the country,” he wrote on X. “Lebanon without Christians would be a jungle and an arid desert.”
In a country where the last official demographic census dates back to 1932 — largely because the issue of confessional balance is so sensitive — Al-Akhbar had to be creative in reaching this figure.
The author of the survey, Nehme Nehme, who presents himself as an education researcher, based his calculations on the list of candidates registered for the baccalaureate exam, both general and technical.
“Since education is compulsory in Lebanon, all families enroll their children in schools and, consequently, for the baccalaureate exams,” he explained. “Of course, the list of registrants does not specify each student’s religion. However, it does indicate their name, their father’s name and their place of birth. Based on this data, we can determine that 15.7 percent of Lebanese candidates for the secondary diploma exams are Christian and conclude that this figure represents the reality of the community in the country.”
However, this methodology is based on a single age group and has sparked skepticism, especially among Christian political forces.
“The methodology of this study clearly lacks precision,” said Charles Jabbour, spokesperson for the Lebanese Forces (LF), one of the largest Christian parties. “It’s enough to remember that during the parliamentary elections in May 2022, 35 percent of those who voted were Christian. How can this figure suddenly drop to just 15 percent, less than half?” Jabbour argued that this is a political message, a way to pressure Christians into silence regarding Hezbollah’s actions.
Notably, this is not the first time Hezbollah circles have reminded the public that the parity between Muslims (Sunnis, Shiites and Druze) and Christians can hardly be justified by demographics.
Last year, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati claimed that a mysterious study had shown that Christians represented only 19 percent of Lebanon’s population.
Similarly, in a recent speech, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah commented on the Christian opposition’s claim that the majority of Lebanese do not want war in southern Lebanon, stating, “Everyone should be aware of their stature and what they represent.”
In his article, Nehme also touched on the idea of changing Lebanon’s political system, suggesting that Christians may need to accept moving from confessional parity to a “civil” system as “the only way to preserve their presence” in Lebanon.
“It’s simple,” Jabbour responded, “those who want to establish a numerical democracy aim to solidify the political dominance of Shiism, represented by Hezbollah, over the country.”
This sentiment is reinforced by the claim that Hezbollah, unable to impose a numerical democracy, is instead seeking to divide political power in the state into three equal parts: Shiites, Sunnis and Christians.
However, the latter two communities — beneficiaries of the current power-sharing system — firmly reject this option.
“We will only accept a change in the political system under one condition: The adoption of a federal system,” Jabbour said.
This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour and translated by Sahar Ghoussoub.
