Photo sent to L'Orient-Le Jour by Hassan Chaitani, resident of Haret Hreik, in Beirut's southern suburbs, on July 30, 2024.
“Avoid Beirut at all costs,” was the "recommendation" by Western diplomats, particularly the American ones, as they discussed options for retaliation with their Israeli counterparts. On the table was Israel's response to Saturday's attack on the Druze town of Majdal Shams in Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights. The strike, which was attributed to — and denied by — Hezbollah, killed 12 children.
By "Beirut," what the diplomats meant was the southern suburbs, a densely populated area and a stronghold of Hezbollah, the targeting of which the party considers a “red line.” It is clear that Israel did not heed this advice.
The Israeli air force struck the Haret Hreik neighborhood, located in the southern suburbs of Beirut, on Tuesday night shortly before 8 p.m. The target is highly symbolic and marks, in itself, an unprecedented escalation in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, ongoing since Oct. 8.
This is the second strike on the southern suburbs in nearly ten months after the one that killed Hamas' deputy political leader, Saleh al-Arouri, in January. Similar to this first strike, it was highly targeted, aiming to assassinate a high-profile individual while causing as few collateral damages as possible.
This time, Fouad Shukur, one of Hezbollah's key military commanders, was targeted. Reportedly the head of Hezbollah's precision-missile project, Shukur is also thought to have been involved in the 1983 attack on the U.S. Marines as well as the recent attack on Majdal Shams, according to the Israeli army. Over four hours after the operation, Hezbollah had yet to respond.
The Israeli army, for its part, confirmed that Hassan Nasrallah’s "right-hand man" was dead, while numerous sources affirmed throughout the evening that he had in fact survived the attack. However, later, a source close to Hezbollah, speaking to L'Orient-Le Jour, confirmed his death. Hezbollah’s prolonged silence is likely a result of Shukur being critically injured but could also be the party wanting to buy time to think about the nature of its response. The fact that Israelis can target a high-profile individual in the heart of the southern suburbs confirms their unequivocal intelligence superiority. The message at this level is clear: we can eliminate you anywhere and at any time.
Scale of the Response?
It is a severe blow for the party, and it will be forced to respond. Nonetheless, many high-profile figures from the “Axis of Resistance” have been eliminated in recent years — from Iranian General Qassem Soleimani to Hezbollah's former strongman, Imad Mughniyeh — without provoking a large-scale response.
But the fact that the strike took place in the southern suburbs partly changes the equation. An attack on Hezbollah's stronghold killing at least three people, including two children, and injuring 74, will trigger a response from the party. “If they target Beirut, we will target Tel Aviv,” Hezbollah officials had warned in recent days when questioned by Western diplomats.
Hezbollah will want to flex its muscles and conduct an operation of a caliber different than what it has been doing for months, but probably below the threshold that would inevitably lead to total war. Israel struck hard without breaking all the rules. But does Hezbollah perceive it that way? To what extent will it be tempted to go all out in its response?
Once again, as in the context of the Iranian-Israeli escalation in April, what is most concerning is the risk of things spiraling out of control. Hezbollah might be tempted to use its precision missiles against a major Israeli city. Hitting symbolic targets without causing casualties? That is probably the only way to prevent the escalation from becoming uncontrollable.
